I have been blogging for two years and well over a thousand entries. I started Twittering as a means of expanding the number of readers and as an accessory to the blog. I use Twitter to share articles and sources with other readers and gain access to material others send. It has become and extension of my blog.
It seemed initially that you would follow someone who seemed to have an interest that would mesh with your estimated reader profile and then hope that they would reciprocate and then follow you. Then if you actually posted something worthwhile they would forward it around and then you would pick up even more followers.
Twitter is one of those things that if you try to figure it out beforehand you will never do it.
I loaded up a few quotes I collect on a Twitter timing device called Tweetlater. One of the quotes struck a small nerve and was retweeted by several readers (they copied my tweet and sent it the people on their list. The quote was from Edward Murrow, “A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.”)
A mother of soldiers in Israel liked the tweet especially in light of the recent Yom Hashoah holocaust memorial. I sent her a copy of one of my original blogs “The Three Most Important Points to Understand about the Holocaust”. It was also an article published in the local newspaper a few years ago.
She complimented the article forwarded it and another Jewish Blogger/ Twitterer in Jerusalem who forwarded it to a Jewish guy in Anchorage, Alaska who also forwarded it with his praises.
The point of this story is trying to understand how these new social networks changes things. The right wingers post their right wing stuff, and the left wing posts their left wing stuff, and somewhere in there are people who just think for themselves and share interesting perspectives and common interests.
But in the course of a few hours I was able to share a perspective with fellow yids and non yids from Anchorage to Jerusalem.
I am not sure what the total significance of this is but I realize it is amazing. The entire internet universe is a virtual magazine with thousands of people with similar interests editing and sending articles and blogs to people with similar interests. The consumers produce and forward content.
The walls between producers and consumers of content are gone.
A different post on the Zayela episode in Honduras is picked up by Twitterers there and pictures and opinions are relayed back as I now quickly connect with eye witnesses and opinion first hand. I now have Facebook postings from new 'friends' in Honduras as a result, though I now need to brush up on my spanish.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Saturday, July 18, 2009
The Lost Party ?
The Republican Party is most assuredly going through an identity struggle, and the pundits obfuscate the issues by speaking in only the most general terms. The controversy within the party is whether it should become more conservative, faulting moderation for its losses, or whether to become more “centrist”, adapting its message for the new demographics and polls.
It is fine to call for free markets, but that does not mean unregulated markets, and their message must contain a realistic measure of freedom and oversight. Financial institutions central to our well being should no more be totally unrestricted than our civil institutions. Even our most precious freedoms do have limits. Every town has courts and jails.
The party could start with an honest discussion of foreign policy- what has worked and what has not. Realism is a good word to bring to bear. We must address the relationship between a profligate economy and our place in the world. It is time for Johnny to cut up his credit cards and live within his means.
It is time to realize that promised benefits must be paid for. Sacrifice is sellable if it is shared.
It is time to realize that America’s strength is in its ideas, not wealth nor military power. It is not coincidence that America has originated so many inventions that have been a source of wealth and power. But our ideas did not originate here because of the soil and water content. We struggle to provide better and better safety nets without destroying the human power that has created our nation.
But the Republican Party’s message of freedom must be consistent. We can not ask our soldiers to die for the freedoms of others and then refuse to sell them liquor on Sundays.
It will be harder to justify some choice but not others. Individual freedom means allowing others to make choices that you may not approve of. The tent must be widened to include pro choice and pro life candidates, acknowledging the legitimate concerns of each. Republicans suffer from disparate groups who each have a litmus test.
Democrats have their divisions but they generally disappear for a few weeks in early November.
The perfect is the enemy of the good and suicide is a poor growth strategy.
Yet .....
All who wander are not lost.
It is fine to call for free markets, but that does not mean unregulated markets, and their message must contain a realistic measure of freedom and oversight. Financial institutions central to our well being should no more be totally unrestricted than our civil institutions. Even our most precious freedoms do have limits. Every town has courts and jails.
The party could start with an honest discussion of foreign policy- what has worked and what has not. Realism is a good word to bring to bear. We must address the relationship between a profligate economy and our place in the world. It is time for Johnny to cut up his credit cards and live within his means.
It is time to realize that promised benefits must be paid for. Sacrifice is sellable if it is shared.
It is time to realize that America’s strength is in its ideas, not wealth nor military power. It is not coincidence that America has originated so many inventions that have been a source of wealth and power. But our ideas did not originate here because of the soil and water content. We struggle to provide better and better safety nets without destroying the human power that has created our nation.
But the Republican Party’s message of freedom must be consistent. We can not ask our soldiers to die for the freedoms of others and then refuse to sell them liquor on Sundays.
It will be harder to justify some choice but not others. Individual freedom means allowing others to make choices that you may not approve of. The tent must be widened to include pro choice and pro life candidates, acknowledging the legitimate concerns of each. Republicans suffer from disparate groups who each have a litmus test.
Democrats have their divisions but they generally disappear for a few weeks in early November.
The perfect is the enemy of the good and suicide is a poor growth strategy.
Yet .....
All who wander are not lost.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Are We As Smart as We Think We Are
In a very thoughtful reply to a Rebelyid posting about how intellectuals and academics miss seemingly obvious points that ordinary people with common sense seem to readily get, Roy Fickling sent this Marylin Savant math problem.
I have to confess that it took, some thought even after seeing her correct answer to understand why she was right.
I guess the point is that some things are not as obviously right as we may think they are.
from Roy's e-mail. See if you get it.
The question is this: Monty Hall gives you three doors to chose from. Behind one of the three is a bright shiny new car. You chose door #1. Monty opens door #3, which is empty. He give you the choice: do you want to change to door #2, or stay with your first choice?
The question posed to Marilyn was, “should I change my answer?” Marilyn’s response was “of course, change to door #2. Your chances of winning will double if you switch doors.”
Marilyn was publically berated by hundreds of mathematicians and academics. They said that even a grade school math student knows that your chances go from 1/3 to 1/2 when one door is opened. The debate even made it to the front page of the New York Times. Marilyn stood fast and wouldn’t budge. It wasn’t until the results of thousands of experiments and hundreds of computer simulations were revealed that the” math geniuses” finally capitulated. The problem was that the foundations of their training were flawed. Although Marilyn had no formal training in mathematics, she did poses the highest IQ ever scored.
Just for grins, the explanation is as follows:
There are two scenarios on the first guess. There is the right answer scenario (1 in 3 chance) and the wrong answer scenario (2 in 3 chance). The odds of a successful outcome are the same at the first guess, i.e., 1/3 that you get a car, or said differently, 2/3 chance you will get encyclopedias.
Now, Monty Hall opens one of the doors that he for a fact knows contains no car.
If you chose correctly the first time (the right answer scenario) and switch your answer, there is a 100% probability that you will lose. If you chose wrong the first time (the wrong answer scenario) and switch your answer, there is a 100% chance that you will win. Since the chances that you chose wrong in the first place are still 2/3 and the chances that you chose right in the first place are still 1/3, you are twice as likely to be driving away in a shiny new car if you switch your answer.
To see it more clearly, use larger numbers. Say there were 100 doors. Your chances of choosing correctly are 1/100. Then, Monty hall opens all but 2 doors, including the one you chose. The chances are still 1/100 that you initially chose correctly and 99/100 that you chose incorrectly. So, the chances are 99/100 that the car is behind the remaining door that you didn’t initially chose. Switch your answer.
I have to confess that it took, some thought even after seeing her correct answer to understand why she was right.
I guess the point is that some things are not as obviously right as we may think they are.
from Roy's e-mail. See if you get it.
The question is this: Monty Hall gives you three doors to chose from. Behind one of the three is a bright shiny new car. You chose door #1. Monty opens door #3, which is empty. He give you the choice: do you want to change to door #2, or stay with your first choice?
The question posed to Marilyn was, “should I change my answer?” Marilyn’s response was “of course, change to door #2. Your chances of winning will double if you switch doors.”
Marilyn was publically berated by hundreds of mathematicians and academics. They said that even a grade school math student knows that your chances go from 1/3 to 1/2 when one door is opened. The debate even made it to the front page of the New York Times. Marilyn stood fast and wouldn’t budge. It wasn’t until the results of thousands of experiments and hundreds of computer simulations were revealed that the” math geniuses” finally capitulated. The problem was that the foundations of their training were flawed. Although Marilyn had no formal training in mathematics, she did poses the highest IQ ever scored.
Just for grins, the explanation is as follows:
There are two scenarios on the first guess. There is the right answer scenario (1 in 3 chance) and the wrong answer scenario (2 in 3 chance). The odds of a successful outcome are the same at the first guess, i.e., 1/3 that you get a car, or said differently, 2/3 chance you will get encyclopedias.
Now, Monty Hall opens one of the doors that he for a fact knows contains no car.
If you chose correctly the first time (the right answer scenario) and switch your answer, there is a 100% probability that you will lose. If you chose wrong the first time (the wrong answer scenario) and switch your answer, there is a 100% chance that you will win. Since the chances that you chose wrong in the first place are still 2/3 and the chances that you chose right in the first place are still 1/3, you are twice as likely to be driving away in a shiny new car if you switch your answer.
To see it more clearly, use larger numbers. Say there were 100 doors. Your chances of choosing correctly are 1/100. Then, Monty hall opens all but 2 doors, including the one you chose. The chances are still 1/100 that you initially chose correctly and 99/100 that you chose incorrectly. So, the chances are 99/100 that the car is behind the remaining door that you didn’t initially chose. Switch your answer.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Economic Demorilization
Larry Kudlow in National Review
July 10, 2009 4:49 PM
The Road to Economic Demoralization
Washington is going the wrong way.
read the whole article here.
excerpts
And China has no capital-gains tax. It only has a 15-to-20 percent corporate tax. The U.S., on the other hand, is raising its cap-gains tax rate to 20 percent.
Fortune magazine recently reported that the number of U.S. companies in the world’s top 500 fell to the lowest level ever, while more Chinese firms than ever made the list. Thirty-seven Chinese companies now rank in the top 500, including nine new entries. Meanwhile, the number of U.S. firms has fallen to 140, the lowest total since Fortune began the list in 1995.
our 40 percent corporate tax rate is already almost 15 percentage points higher than the corporate rates in most of Europe.
Here’s the clincher: Year-to-date, Dow Jones stocks are off 8 percent, while China stocks are up 71 percent. The world index is up 4 percent. Emerging markets are up 25 percent. They’re all beating us. None of this is good.
July 10, 2009 4:49 PM
The Road to Economic Demoralization
Washington is going the wrong way.
read the whole article here.
excerpts
And China has no capital-gains tax. It only has a 15-to-20 percent corporate tax. The U.S., on the other hand, is raising its cap-gains tax rate to 20 percent.
Fortune magazine recently reported that the number of U.S. companies in the world’s top 500 fell to the lowest level ever, while more Chinese firms than ever made the list. Thirty-seven Chinese companies now rank in the top 500, including nine new entries. Meanwhile, the number of U.S. firms has fallen to 140, the lowest total since Fortune began the list in 1995.
our 40 percent corporate tax rate is already almost 15 percentage points higher than the corporate rates in most of Europe.
Here’s the clincher: Year-to-date, Dow Jones stocks are off 8 percent, while China stocks are up 71 percent. The world index is up 4 percent. Emerging markets are up 25 percent. They’re all beating us. None of this is good.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
The Missing Ingredient for the Economy
A friend involved in investment market research believes the stock market is bullish for several reasons one of them being the overwhelming bearish market sentiment. Experienced investors understand that bottoms happen when sellers are exhausted and when bears rule the roost. Tops happen when everyone is bullish- usually.
This time may be different and he was curious what I see on the street. My business is down severely both in unit volume and the margin contribution per unit. This means I am selling less and making less money on everything I sell. I have laid off some workers, ceased matching 401k contributions, frozen wages, reduced uncritical property insurance, changed carriers for cost reductions, and looked at other cost reductions. I would consider this a successful year if I could break even.
From conversations I am the rule and not the exception. This means that the taxes I bitched about paying last year will not be paid this year. It is clear from the street that tax revenues will drop sharply.
Because of the mass of uncertainty we have no plans for expansion, equipment purchases including rolling stock such as vehicles. We keep inventory low which kills output at the steel mills that serve us. Most are running at less than 50% capacity. It also kills rail traffic which transport industrial commodities.
I am more likely to lay off 5 people than I am to hire one. Almost a fourth of corporations have instituted across the board wage cuts. In my 30 years in the business world I have never seen this.
Fewer people will be working and they will be making less.
There is much money sloshing around from money supply growth and the stimulus but people do not invest and risk because money is cheap, they invest because they expect to get a commensurate return and nothing kills the incentive to invest like uncertainty. And there is little certainty in this administration’s policies.
No one knows how this stimulus bill will affect their future interest rates, their inventory requirements, and the return on their investments. If the card check bill comes to pass small business people who are able will shut down and move to the beach; not for calculation of real costs but for fear of losing their autonomy that drove them to open their own business.
And this cap and trade has every business wondering how it will affect their product and costs. How will it affect trade if the same ‘carbon reduction goals’ are forced on other nations who sell to us? Will it cause a trade and affect their exports? Should we delay buying trucks until we know the impact of cap and trade on their fuel costs?
Obama’s ambitious and expensive programs enacted in a severely wounded economy has most business people frozen and I see very little in the future ready to thaw their fear. The mere discussion of these issues is enough to stall employment and investment decisions.
I would not be surprised to see a short uptick in auto sales as the fleets age, and some may be motivated by a combination of low current prices and the possibility of avoiding higher prices later as cap and trade policies raise the future prices. With low returns on cash such a decision is even less costly.
But if this is the only buying motivation it will not last. We will drive less and buy less.
There is some uptick in scrap metal prices and this is usually bullish, but we could be at a ‘dead cat bounce’ that will soon exhaust itself.
We have seen signals in the past that indicated that a bottom was in, but this time we are seeing these signals in the midst of the most dramatic change in the structure of our economy every undertaken.
There is plenty of cash floating around (over 3 trillion in money market funds) out there but if it is going to be spent and invested, we will need confidence the future is sound. That is sorely missing from Obama’s economic policy.
This time may be different and he was curious what I see on the street. My business is down severely both in unit volume and the margin contribution per unit. This means I am selling less and making less money on everything I sell. I have laid off some workers, ceased matching 401k contributions, frozen wages, reduced uncritical property insurance, changed carriers for cost reductions, and looked at other cost reductions. I would consider this a successful year if I could break even.
From conversations I am the rule and not the exception. This means that the taxes I bitched about paying last year will not be paid this year. It is clear from the street that tax revenues will drop sharply.
Because of the mass of uncertainty we have no plans for expansion, equipment purchases including rolling stock such as vehicles. We keep inventory low which kills output at the steel mills that serve us. Most are running at less than 50% capacity. It also kills rail traffic which transport industrial commodities.
I am more likely to lay off 5 people than I am to hire one. Almost a fourth of corporations have instituted across the board wage cuts. In my 30 years in the business world I have never seen this.
Fewer people will be working and they will be making less.
There is much money sloshing around from money supply growth and the stimulus but people do not invest and risk because money is cheap, they invest because they expect to get a commensurate return and nothing kills the incentive to invest like uncertainty. And there is little certainty in this administration’s policies.
No one knows how this stimulus bill will affect their future interest rates, their inventory requirements, and the return on their investments. If the card check bill comes to pass small business people who are able will shut down and move to the beach; not for calculation of real costs but for fear of losing their autonomy that drove them to open their own business.
And this cap and trade has every business wondering how it will affect their product and costs. How will it affect trade if the same ‘carbon reduction goals’ are forced on other nations who sell to us? Will it cause a trade and affect their exports? Should we delay buying trucks until we know the impact of cap and trade on their fuel costs?
Obama’s ambitious and expensive programs enacted in a severely wounded economy has most business people frozen and I see very little in the future ready to thaw their fear. The mere discussion of these issues is enough to stall employment and investment decisions.
I would not be surprised to see a short uptick in auto sales as the fleets age, and some may be motivated by a combination of low current prices and the possibility of avoiding higher prices later as cap and trade policies raise the future prices. With low returns on cash such a decision is even less costly.
But if this is the only buying motivation it will not last. We will drive less and buy less.
There is some uptick in scrap metal prices and this is usually bullish, but we could be at a ‘dead cat bounce’ that will soon exhaust itself.
We have seen signals in the past that indicated that a bottom was in, but this time we are seeing these signals in the midst of the most dramatic change in the structure of our economy every undertaken.
There is plenty of cash floating around (over 3 trillion in money market funds) out there but if it is going to be spent and invested, we will need confidence the future is sound. That is sorely missing from Obama’s economic policy.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Obama's Czars
1. AIDS Czar: Jeffrey Crowley
2. Bailout Czar: Herbert Allison Jr.
3. Border Czar: Alan Bersin
4. Car Czar: Steve Rattner
5. Counterterrorism Czar: John Brennan
6. Cyber-Security Czar: Melissa Hathaway
7. Drug Czar: Gil Kerlikowske
8. Economic Czar: Larry Summers
9. Deputy Economic Czar: Paul Volcker
10. Energy Czar: Carol Browner
11. Green Jobs Czar: Van Jones
12. Guantanamo Closure Czar: Daniel Fried
13. Health Czar: Nancy-Ann DeParle
14. Info-Tech Czar: Vivek Kundra:
15. Intelligence Czar: Dennis Blair
16. Regulatory Czar: Cass Sunstein
17. Religion Czar or Faith-Based Czar: Joshua DuBois
18. Science Czar: John Holdren
19. Stimulus Oversight Czar: Earl Devaney
20. Trade Czar: Ron Kirk
21. Urban Affairs Czar: Adolfo Carrion
22. Weapons of Mass Destruction Czar: Gary Samore
Appointed, not subject to confirmation hearings, unaccountable, yet wielding immense power.
2. Bailout Czar: Herbert Allison Jr.
3. Border Czar: Alan Bersin
4. Car Czar: Steve Rattner
5. Counterterrorism Czar: John Brennan
6. Cyber-Security Czar: Melissa Hathaway
7. Drug Czar: Gil Kerlikowske
8. Economic Czar: Larry Summers
9. Deputy Economic Czar: Paul Volcker
10. Energy Czar: Carol Browner
11. Green Jobs Czar: Van Jones
12. Guantanamo Closure Czar: Daniel Fried
13. Health Czar: Nancy-Ann DeParle
14. Info-Tech Czar: Vivek Kundra:
15. Intelligence Czar: Dennis Blair
16. Regulatory Czar: Cass Sunstein
17. Religion Czar or Faith-Based Czar: Joshua DuBois
18. Science Czar: John Holdren
19. Stimulus Oversight Czar: Earl Devaney
20. Trade Czar: Ron Kirk
21. Urban Affairs Czar: Adolfo Carrion
22. Weapons of Mass Destruction Czar: Gary Samore
Appointed, not subject to confirmation hearings, unaccountable, yet wielding immense power.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
Chavez's Tyranny Drives Away Venezuela's Future
In the recent Newsweek Mac Margolis notes the brain drain in Venezuela.
Venezuela's Brain Drain
read the whole article here.
Excerpts:
And now after a decade of the so-called Bolivarian revolution, tens of thousands of disillusioned Venezuelan professionals have had enough. Artists, lawyers, physicians, managers and engineers are leaving the country by droves, while those already abroad are scrapping plans to return. The wealthiest among them are buying condos in Miami and Panama City. Cashiered oil engineers are working rigs in the North Sea and sifting the tar sands of western Canada. Those of European descent have applied for passports from their native lands. Academic scholarships are lifeboats. An estimated million Venezuelans have moved abroad in the decade since Chávez took power.
HKO comment- Once realization of Castro's oppression was clear Cuba experienced the same talent drain and never recovered. No amount of oil or resources will overcome the loss of your most talented and productive citizens.
You may rob Peter to pay Paul and get Paul's approval, but count on Peter leaving town.
Venezuela's Brain Drain
read the whole article here.
Excerpts:
And now after a decade of the so-called Bolivarian revolution, tens of thousands of disillusioned Venezuelan professionals have had enough. Artists, lawyers, physicians, managers and engineers are leaving the country by droves, while those already abroad are scrapping plans to return. The wealthiest among them are buying condos in Miami and Panama City. Cashiered oil engineers are working rigs in the North Sea and sifting the tar sands of western Canada. Those of European descent have applied for passports from their native lands. Academic scholarships are lifeboats. An estimated million Venezuelans have moved abroad in the decade since Chávez took power.
HKO comment- Once realization of Castro's oppression was clear Cuba experienced the same talent drain and never recovered. No amount of oil or resources will overcome the loss of your most talented and productive citizens.
You may rob Peter to pay Paul and get Paul's approval, but count on Peter leaving town.
Friday, July 10, 2009
A "Climate Change" Time Line
The earth's overall temperature in the last several years has either remained steady or slightly decreased -- depending on which side of the issue is interpreting the data. No one is maintaining that the world is getting warmer and warmer every single year, which was the initial prediction.[i]
Nevertheless, the current administration is risking America's economic future on "green" energy in an effort to solve an unproven crisis. The cap and trade legislation is moving ahead in spite of the fact that the United States is already one of the leading nations in curtailing CO2 output.
from American Thinker
from American Thinker
June 24, 2009
After Global Warming
by Larrey Anderson
see whole article here.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
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