The assassination of Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto reminds us that World War IV and its front in the Middle East is largely about women's rights, and our effort to defeat the Islamic Fascists is as noble as Lincloln's in 1860.
Saturday, December 29, 2007
The War that Was Never Fought.
George Tenet lamented, "Our failures are always trumpeted; but our successes- which are many- are always a secret."
His point is well taken and reminds me that at its best our media will only give us a part of the story, and one of my axioms is that a part of the truth is often more misleading than all of a lie.
The hard reality is that the CIA is incapable of being able to monitor all the points of potential problems that exist in the world. They must make critical decisions in a world of uncertainty with far from perfect informations. They make a lot of decisions and a lot of them prove wrong.
It takes an operative up to 2 years in immersion training just to learn the language of one country well enough to be effective. The number of different languages and cultures the CIA must fucntion under is enormous. In retrospect the severe budget cuts in the CIA during the 90's was a disaster.
Like other institutions they suffer from ignorance and arrogance. But little is written about the catastrophes they avoided. No reporter covers the war that was never fought.
His point is well taken and reminds me that at its best our media will only give us a part of the story, and one of my axioms is that a part of the truth is often more misleading than all of a lie.
The hard reality is that the CIA is incapable of being able to monitor all the points of potential problems that exist in the world. They must make critical decisions in a world of uncertainty with far from perfect informations. They make a lot of decisions and a lot of them prove wrong.
It takes an operative up to 2 years in immersion training just to learn the language of one country well enough to be effective. The number of different languages and cultures the CIA must fucntion under is enormous. In retrospect the severe budget cuts in the CIA during the 90's was a disaster.
Like other institutions they suffer from ignorance and arrogance. But little is written about the catastrophes they avoided. No reporter covers the war that was never fought.
The Myth of Wall Street
.... is that consumer spending drives Wall Street. Our last recessions have occurred during an increase in consumer spending.
A healthy economy is the result of business spending and productivity. Consumption is only 30% of the economy. Is is capital and production spending that drives the job creation that pays the people and supports their ability to spend.
Productivity and savings drive economic growth. This was discovered in the 19th century by French economist Jean-Baptiste and is reffered to as "Say's Law".
tips from the latest edition of Forecasts and Strategies by Mark Skousen, a great investment newsletter. Also check out his new book- Investing in One Lesson.
A healthy economy is the result of business spending and productivity. Consumption is only 30% of the economy. Is is capital and production spending that drives the job creation that pays the people and supports their ability to spend.
Productivity and savings drive economic growth. This was discovered in the 19th century by French economist Jean-Baptiste and is reffered to as "Say's Law".
tips from the latest edition of Forecasts and Strategies by Mark Skousen, a great investment newsletter. Also check out his new book- Investing in One Lesson.
Dissonace and the Back Spasms at the Cox Capitol Theatre
The Back Spasms will be playing at New Year's eve at the Cox Capital Theatre.
Opening will be Dissonance, a great little band my Daughter Natalie plays in. The Back Spasms features Jimmy Gaudet on harmonica and vocals, my wife Debbie on vocals, Tim Alexander on drums, Bird on Bass and the fabulous recording artist Joey Stuckey on scorching guitar and vocals.
I play guitar, sometimes too loud, but I don't sing because I know better. The three vocalists sound great together.
Come see us New Year's Eve. We will rock you.
Winning the End Game
Charlie Wilson's War starring Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts and Seymour Hoffman as the crass street wise CIA operative was a bit of reality injected into the uncertainty of our foreign affairs. See it.Womanizing and boozing, but effective, Congressman Charlie Wilson is touched by the plight of the Afghan refugees from Russia's brutal invasion. He increases the funding of covert operations to arm the mujahideen from $5 million to a billion dollars and helps send the Russians running with their heads between their legs, not only removing the Commmunist threat from the Middle East but neutering the Soviets for decades.
In the end he laments that "... we fucked up the end game." While willing to fund arms to defeat the soviets, the politicians were uninterested in funding the recovery, building needed schools, hospitals and security forces. We left a vacuum that was filled by the Taliban and Al Queda. We are back in Afghanistan finishing the very difficult work.
We learned from the over bearing reparations forced on Germany after WWI, and after WWII replaced the crushing punishment with the Marshal Plan. We learned from the endless uncertainty of Vietnam and succeeded in Desert Storm with clarity and short term ferocity.
In Iraq we have learned that we must commit to win the peace if do not want to return. Regardless of inteligence failures that may have led us into Iraq, if we withdraw without committing to rebuild and improve the position of the Iraqis we will not serve the cause of peace; we will only be laying the ground work for the next war.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
My Ten Predictions for 2008
The first animated presidential candidate will win enough ballots to tilt the election.
A new music combining baroque and ska will sweep the nation.
Disney will open a theme park in Bagdad. The Mountain of 72 virgins ride will become an attractive side trip for Muslims making pilgrimage to Mecca.
A breakthrough in fuel technology will make oil companies the short sale candidates of the year.
Higher education will splinter into specialty subject groups linking academic disciplines across campuses and threatening the academic hegemony of the university system.
Secondary education will experiment with individualized instruction and the elimination of grade levels.
The United Nations will have a competitive agency based on peace through democratic and free market principles. The two global agencies for world peace will engage in a fierce competition for global influence and will end in violent conflict like two cheap protection rackets.
Israel will develop a satellite missile shield technology that will track any missile from launch and immediately guide a retaliatory launch to that spot. They will share the technology and become the first country to win a Nobel Prize for World Peace.
Club Med opens in Beirut. Jews aren’t allowed and women must wear burkas. Totally unexpectedly it becomes a tourist haven for Germans.
Family Guy and Southpark Characters will host the Political Party Conventions. Cartman will win an Emmy.
A new music combining baroque and ska will sweep the nation.
Disney will open a theme park in Bagdad. The Mountain of 72 virgins ride will become an attractive side trip for Muslims making pilgrimage to Mecca.
A breakthrough in fuel technology will make oil companies the short sale candidates of the year.
Higher education will splinter into specialty subject groups linking academic disciplines across campuses and threatening the academic hegemony of the university system.
Secondary education will experiment with individualized instruction and the elimination of grade levels.
The United Nations will have a competitive agency based on peace through democratic and free market principles. The two global agencies for world peace will engage in a fierce competition for global influence and will end in violent conflict like two cheap protection rackets.
Israel will develop a satellite missile shield technology that will track any missile from launch and immediately guide a retaliatory launch to that spot. They will share the technology and become the first country to win a Nobel Prize for World Peace.
Club Med opens in Beirut. Jews aren’t allowed and women must wear burkas. Totally unexpectedly it becomes a tourist haven for Germans.
Family Guy and Southpark Characters will host the Political Party Conventions. Cartman will win an Emmy.
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
Phillis Wheatley
... was the first African-American author to publish a book in the colonies. She was a sensation in the colonial-era Boston for a book she wrote in 1773 titled 'Poems on Various Subjects, Religious and Moral.' Raised as a slave she learned to read and write and was freed by her owners after the books publication.
Wheatley was forced to appear among a a group of citizens to prove she had actually written the poems. The work was so good many did not believe a slave could have written such quality. When her book was published a preface was signed by leading Boston citizens attesting that an "uncultivated Barbarian from Africa" had actually written it.
One of the signers in the preface was John Hancock, the first person to sign the Declaration of Independence.
from The Intellectual Devotional- American History by David Kidder and Noah Oppenheim.
Krav Maga
Imi Lichtenfeld developed the early stages of his martial art in the streets of Bratislava defending Jews against fascist thugs. He was forced to leave and was asked to develop a martial arts for the Haganah and eventually the Israeli Defense force. It was further perfected during the unfortunately plentiful opportunities in the Israeli wars in the field.
In 1964 it was allowed to be taught to citizens and in 1978 the Krav Maga association was developed. You can now learn this Israeli Martial Art in training centers around the world and in the United States. Krav Maga is Hebrew for 'contact combat.'
Learn more about it at http://www.kravmaga.com/kravmaga.html or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krav_Maga
Monday, December 24, 2007
If I am Not For Myself..
The above title by Ruth R. Wisse is taken from The Wisdom of the Fathers by the Jewish scholar Hillel, “If I am not for myself, who will be for me?”
The subtitle, “The Liberal Betrayal of the Jews” examines how the Jews have remained committed to liberal causes that undermine their security and existence. The Jews have remained generally liberal in spite of their economic successes. This is unique.
Quotes from the book:
"It's funny, isn't it, that the Arabs, who place such value on military prowess, should have lost on the battlefield, while the Jews, who take such pride in the power if their intellect, should have lost the war of ideas." Ruth Wisse
"Democracy tends to ignore, even deny, threats to its existence because it loathes doing what is needed to counter them. It awakes only when the danger becomes deadly, imminent, evident. By then, either there is too little time left for it to save itself, or the price of survival has become crushingly high." Jean- Francois Revel- How Democracies Perish
"Since some of the most tyrannical rulers of the twentieth century considered the Jews the supreme danger to their hegemony, whoever stood up for the Jews stood up against Czarism and Communism, against Hitler and Stalin and Sadaam Hussein, for individual rights and democratic freedom and international justice. In fact the level of commitment to democratic freedom and individual rights in any society can probably be tested most effectively by the single indicator of its readiness to protect the rights of the Jews.... the defense of the Jews remained the surest test of liberal values." Ruth R. Wisse
There is nothing more humiliating than to have to defend the truth." Alain Finkielkraut
"Jews will never prove themselves moral by seeking refuge from their struggle behind the banner of liberalism. But liberalism assuredly will be judged by whether it can protect Jews." Ruth Wisse
"By assuming even a fraction of the guilt that is not rightly his, the moral supremacist betrays the cause of righteousness in which he says he labors." Ruth R. Wisse
"Zionsim was the last hope of European civilization, for unless Europe could find a rational and just solution to the Jewish problem, Europe itself could no longer pretend to be liberal, rational, or just." Ruth R. Wisse
"History teaches that momentous opportunities are seldom realized." Ruth Wisse
The subtitle, “The Liberal Betrayal of the Jews” examines how the Jews have remained committed to liberal causes that undermine their security and existence. The Jews have remained generally liberal in spite of their economic successes. This is unique.
Quotes from the book:
"It's funny, isn't it, that the Arabs, who place such value on military prowess, should have lost on the battlefield, while the Jews, who take such pride in the power if their intellect, should have lost the war of ideas." Ruth Wisse
"Democracy tends to ignore, even deny, threats to its existence because it loathes doing what is needed to counter them. It awakes only when the danger becomes deadly, imminent, evident. By then, either there is too little time left for it to save itself, or the price of survival has become crushingly high." Jean- Francois Revel- How Democracies Perish
"Since some of the most tyrannical rulers of the twentieth century considered the Jews the supreme danger to their hegemony, whoever stood up for the Jews stood up against Czarism and Communism, against Hitler and Stalin and Sadaam Hussein, for individual rights and democratic freedom and international justice. In fact the level of commitment to democratic freedom and individual rights in any society can probably be tested most effectively by the single indicator of its readiness to protect the rights of the Jews.... the defense of the Jews remained the surest test of liberal values." Ruth R. Wisse
There is nothing more humiliating than to have to defend the truth." Alain Finkielkraut
"Jews will never prove themselves moral by seeking refuge from their struggle behind the banner of liberalism. But liberalism assuredly will be judged by whether it can protect Jews." Ruth Wisse
"By assuming even a fraction of the guilt that is not rightly his, the moral supremacist betrays the cause of righteousness in which he says he labors." Ruth R. Wisse
"Zionsim was the last hope of European civilization, for unless Europe could find a rational and just solution to the Jewish problem, Europe itself could no longer pretend to be liberal, rational, or just." Ruth R. Wisse
"History teaches that momentous opportunities are seldom realized." Ruth Wisse
Lessons from "The War"
For Chanukah Debbie gave me the Ken Burns documentary “The War” on DVD. I can not recommend it highly enough. Burns brings a depth and a reality to the history of WW II that is poetic.
In the first year of the war 78,000 American surrendered at Bataan. 41 American torpedo planes attacked Japanese carriers at Midway; none hit their targets and 35 were shot down.
8 months after Pearl Harbor we invaded Guadalcanal. After our troops were ashore, the Japanese destroyed our fleet supplying them in one of our worst naval defeats. Our troops would have starved if not for the Japanese rice storage they found. Casualties were so high (7,100) the news was kept from the American public for fear of demoralizing them.
In North Africa our green troops were routed by Rommel. Our tanks were nicknamed Ronsons after the cigarette lighter because they “lit first time every time” whenever the superior German tanks with their 88s hit them. The British referred to the GIs as “their Italians”. We lost 6,000 men in 2 weeks and another 3,000 surrendered.
We won because defeat was never an option. Early on our fleet was being sunk faster than we could build them. This changed and our industrial might quickly revved up to deliver tanks and boats faster than they could be destroyed. Everyone bought war bonds and recycled and forewent consumption. Less than 200 cars were produced for the public during the war.
We quickly learned from our defeats, another underestimated American trait, and defeated the enemy at Midway, Guadalcanal, and North Africa, and everywhere else.
But we forget how ill prepared, poorly trained, and often poorly led our troops were and how grim our prospects were during the 12 months following Pearl Harbor. Yet no Senator stood up and announced, “This war is lost.”
It never was.
In the first year of the war 78,000 American surrendered at Bataan. 41 American torpedo planes attacked Japanese carriers at Midway; none hit their targets and 35 were shot down.
8 months after Pearl Harbor we invaded Guadalcanal. After our troops were ashore, the Japanese destroyed our fleet supplying them in one of our worst naval defeats. Our troops would have starved if not for the Japanese rice storage they found. Casualties were so high (7,100) the news was kept from the American public for fear of demoralizing them.
In North Africa our green troops were routed by Rommel. Our tanks were nicknamed Ronsons after the cigarette lighter because they “lit first time every time” whenever the superior German tanks with their 88s hit them. The British referred to the GIs as “their Italians”. We lost 6,000 men in 2 weeks and another 3,000 surrendered.
We won because defeat was never an option. Early on our fleet was being sunk faster than we could build them. This changed and our industrial might quickly revved up to deliver tanks and boats faster than they could be destroyed. Everyone bought war bonds and recycled and forewent consumption. Less than 200 cars were produced for the public during the war.
We quickly learned from our defeats, another underestimated American trait, and defeated the enemy at Midway, Guadalcanal, and North Africa, and everywhere else.
But we forget how ill prepared, poorly trained, and often poorly led our troops were and how grim our prospects were during the 12 months following Pearl Harbor. Yet no Senator stood up and announced, “This war is lost.”
It never was.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
The Inevitablity Facing Social Security
My first wife, Renee, died on January 10, 1995. I was surprised to find out that my daughter,then 4-1/2 qualified for a survivor's death benefit under Social Security. I earn a pretty good living and I surely thought the payment would be means tested. It would only be means tested if I drew the payment. I could earn a million dollars a day and my daughter could draw the full benefit.
My grandmother lived to be nearly 102. With just the COLA increases she was drawing a pretty decent check when she passed, and she used to comment every year when the notice that she was getting an increase came that it was ridiculous that the government was sending money to people who did not need it.
My father will soon turn 90 and the same is true for him. I do not begrudge him or anyone a dime of their money, but he could also live without the annual increases he receives.
Yet AARP and the public refuses to acknowledge that there is room to cut benefits. The demographics of social security leads to an inevitable crisis and both parties have failed miserably to face it. They could not raise taxes high enough to solve it. It will become means tested.
Americans again wants a benefit they are not willing to pay for, and our leaders foster this dangerous illusion.
My grandmother lived to be nearly 102. With just the COLA increases she was drawing a pretty decent check when she passed, and she used to comment every year when the notice that she was getting an increase came that it was ridiculous that the government was sending money to people who did not need it.
My father will soon turn 90 and the same is true for him. I do not begrudge him or anyone a dime of their money, but he could also live without the annual increases he receives.
Yet AARP and the public refuses to acknowledge that there is room to cut benefits. The demographics of social security leads to an inevitable crisis and both parties have failed miserably to face it. They could not raise taxes high enough to solve it. It will become means tested.
Americans again wants a benefit they are not willing to pay for, and our leaders foster this dangerous illusion.
Neo Liberalism
Neoconservatives have been blamed as an insidious cabal that has influenced our foreign policy especially in Iraq. It is a dangerous concept to believe that a small group can hijack the will of the people, but such common lies are accepted because it brings comfort to the believers. In this case it makes the solution much easier- just replace the few offenders and 'Poof!' world peace.
It absolves us from our responsibilities.
Alasdair Roberts in "The War We Deserve" in Foreign Policy Magazine faults the contrary movement, neoliberalism. This is the notion that we can achieve big goals without a lot of cost. It is committed to tax reduction, fiscal discipline, light regulation and free trade. It has influenced both parties since Reagan. It relishes micropolicies that promises great results at little cost.
We thought we could win a big military victory on the cheap as we had done in the first Gulf War. Pentagon advisor Kenneth Adelman predicted a "cakewalk".
We embark on the "historic mission" overseas yet are delivered tax cuts. We refuse to restrain Social Security growth and are drifting to national health care, but believe me that America does not want to pay for that either.
Neoliberalsim promises we can have it all at a bargain basement price. I am reminded of a libertarian axiom that "a government that will give you everything you want can take everything you have."
It absolves us from our responsibilities.
Alasdair Roberts in "The War We Deserve" in Foreign Policy Magazine faults the contrary movement, neoliberalism. This is the notion that we can achieve big goals without a lot of cost. It is committed to tax reduction, fiscal discipline, light regulation and free trade. It has influenced both parties since Reagan. It relishes micropolicies that promises great results at little cost.
We thought we could win a big military victory on the cheap as we had done in the first Gulf War. Pentagon advisor Kenneth Adelman predicted a "cakewalk".
We embark on the "historic mission" overseas yet are delivered tax cuts. We refuse to restrain Social Security growth and are drifting to national health care, but believe me that America does not want to pay for that either.
Neoliberalsim promises we can have it all at a bargain basement price. I am reminded of a libertarian axiom that "a government that will give you everything you want can take everything you have."
Merry Christmas- You're Fired
Last week we sent three employees for random drug tests. It is routine and necessary in a plant with cranes, tons of steel and hazardous fabrication equipment.
All three employees failed and were discharged. This is the first time I can remember that all of the prospects failed. One had levels of marijuana and the other two had high levels of cocaine or opiates. Usually no more than one out of three fails and it is commonly a surpise which one it is.
In our environment marijuana is often the most dangerous drug because of the way it affects both depth perception and response time. For us it is purely a safety issue and not a comment on the drug laws. They could just as easily have been fired for alcohol which is legal.
Our position on drug testing is clear to all our workers, yet they put their safety and their jobs at risk. These three employees just brought home a sour Christmas to their families.
All three employees failed and were discharged. This is the first time I can remember that all of the prospects failed. One had levels of marijuana and the other two had high levels of cocaine or opiates. Usually no more than one out of three fails and it is commonly a surpise which one it is.
In our environment marijuana is often the most dangerous drug because of the way it affects both depth perception and response time. For us it is purely a safety issue and not a comment on the drug laws. They could just as easily have been fired for alcohol which is legal.
Our position on drug testing is clear to all our workers, yet they put their safety and their jobs at risk. These three employees just brought home a sour Christmas to their families.
Oil Myths
The populist notion of greedy oil companies driving (get it) up the price of oil misses the obvious. The oil is largely owned by OPEC, not Exxon Mobil. Russia and Venezuela are nationalizing oil reserves; cheap and easy oil reserves are no longer available to the big oil companies.
Big Oil is the only counterweight to OPEC we have. Today Big Oil are price takers, not price makers.
We are not running out of oil. In fact proven reserves are larger than three decades ago. The higher price has performed its function of incentivizing more exploration and production. New reserves have been found off of Brazil. Higher prices have made "unconventional hydrocrabons" such as shale and oil tar become available sources.
Higher prices have also driven new technology such as fuel injectors, hyrbrid and fuel cell technology. Such technology has the impact of countering natural scarcity.
Higher prices are not inevitable. Higher prices are a result of short term mismatches in supply and demand. It can shift downward like it did in the 1970's. OPEC greed drove the economies into a recession and reduced the demand for their product when production was increasing.
It is far easier for new companies to challenge the large automakers. Other industries may enter the game with the entreprenureal zeal that so commonly solves such huge problems. Maybe Sony or Apple or Intel or some whiz kid will make your next car.
summarized by HKO from "Think Again" by Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran in the November/ December issue of Foreign Policy
Big Oil is the only counterweight to OPEC we have. Today Big Oil are price takers, not price makers.
We are not running out of oil. In fact proven reserves are larger than three decades ago. The higher price has performed its function of incentivizing more exploration and production. New reserves have been found off of Brazil. Higher prices have made "unconventional hydrocrabons" such as shale and oil tar become available sources.
Higher prices have also driven new technology such as fuel injectors, hyrbrid and fuel cell technology. Such technology has the impact of countering natural scarcity.
Higher prices are not inevitable. Higher prices are a result of short term mismatches in supply and demand. It can shift downward like it did in the 1970's. OPEC greed drove the economies into a recession and reduced the demand for their product when production was increasing.
It is far easier for new companies to challenge the large automakers. Other industries may enter the game with the entreprenureal zeal that so commonly solves such huge problems. Maybe Sony or Apple or Intel or some whiz kid will make your next car.
summarized by HKO from "Think Again" by Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran in the November/ December issue of Foreign Policy
Fighting Fascism
In 1935 Joe Louis knocked out Jewish boxer Max Baer in round 4, setting him up to fight Max Schmeling, the pride of Nazi Germany. Louis' manager, Mike Jacobs (Jewish) set up the fight in Yankee Stadium to 45,000 fans. Jews supported Louis as one of their own and wanted him to refute the claims of the master race. They were dissappointed when Schmeling took Louis down in round 12. Hitler congratulated Schmeling for his patriotic achievement.
Schmeling earned the right to fight Braddock for the crown, but Braddocks' Jewish manager did not want to give the German fighter a chance to take the crown to Germany. Louis's manager, Jacobs, offered Braddock the unheard of sum of $ 500,000 (this was the 1930's) to fight Louis instead. Louis beat Braddock, giving him another chance at Schmeling.
The second Louis Schmeling fight was billed as the match between fascism and democracy. The American Jewish Congress and the Non Partisan Anti Nazi League begged Jacobs to cancel the fight. Jacobs offered to donate 10% of the gate to a fund to help Jewish refugees.
In June 1938 Joe Louis knocked out Max Schmeling in the first round. Along with Jesse Owens' victory in the Olympics, Joe Louis punctured the Nazi claim of racial superiority before it achieved its murderous final objective.
Schleming became a righteous gentile and harbored several Jews from arrest and deportation.
From the American Jewish Historical Society's fall 2007"Heritage" Magazine.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Killing the Death Penalty
Jeff Jacoby makes a passionate and a rational objection to the elimination of the dealth penalty in New Jersey. Personally I have reservations about the death penalty; there are times I think it is too merciful. I like the idea of locking a convicted murderer in a cell with photos and videos of the victim and their family and friends displayed 24/7.
from the Boston Globe:
Life and Death in New Jersey
By Jeff Jacoby, Globe Columnist
By Jeff Jacoby, Globe Columnist
December 19, 2007
That's the way it so often is with death-penalty opponents like Corzine: In their zeal to keep the guilty alive, they forget the innocents who have died. Their conscience is outraged by the death penalty, but only when it is lawfully applied to convicted murderers after due process of law. The far more frequent "death penalty" - the one imposed unlawfully on so many murder victims, often with wanton cruelty - doesn't disturb their conscience nearly so much.
Nor do their consciences seem overly troubled by the additional lives lost when capital punishment is eliminated.
Nor do their consciences seem overly troubled by the additional lives lost when capital punishment is eliminated.
A widening sheaf of studies (some by scholars who personally oppose the death penalty) have found that each time a murderer is executed, between 3 and 18 additional homicides are deterred. To mention just one example, University of Houston professors Dale Cloninger and Roberto Marchesini studied the effect of the death-penalty moratorium declared by Illinois Governor George Ryan in 2000, and Ryan's subsequent commutation of every death-row inmate's sentence. Result: an estimated 150 additional murders in Illinois over the subsequent 48 months.
New Jersey hasn't executed anyone since 1963, so the new law may be largely symbolic. But there is nothing symbolic about all the blood shed since the death penalty was abandoned 44 years ago. In 1963, there were 181 homicides in the Garden State. By 1970 there were more than 400, and by 1980, more than 500. In 2002, state officials calculated that on average, a murder was committed in New Jersey every 25 hours and 41 minutes.
While the murder rate since 2000 has declined modestly across the country, it has "jumped 44 percent in Jersey, up from 3.4 murders per 100,000 people to 4.9," writes Steven Malanga of the Manhattan Institute. "Jersey's increase in murders has been the sixth-highest in the country."
for the rest of the article: http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/12/19/life_and_death_in_new_jersey?mode=PF
How to Lie With Statistics
In college over three decades ago we used a terrific book in statistics called, "How to Lie with Statistics" by Darrell Huff. This has been more valuable to me in my post college education than any other book I can remember, and is still in print and available at Amazon.
One of the illustrated methods was to conduct hundreds of studies and only refer to the ones that reached the desired conclusions. Perhaps there were 100 groups testing toothpaste and one of the groups had a 60% reduction in cavities. The other groups had either an increase in cavities or no statistical variation. The other 99 groups are ignored and Madison Avenue births a successful toothpaste campaign.
With any sense of integrity this is a lie, both in intent and in effect. You would think our professional media would protect us against this but they are more often willing accomplices.
This same form of statistical lying is evident in the Global Dooming debate. Dissenting research and opinion is discarded and discredited. In American Thinker (see recommended sites) James Lewis writes:
Algorism means "I'm always right, no matter how the facts turn out."
Global Dooming has a very simple explanation. There's nothing new about it. It is just the human desire to create a millenarian narrative that fits our political biases, whipped on by the Politically Correct elites of this world, fed by a huge infusion of money into climate modeling and other dubious science, plus unprecedented media hype, and finally, the intimidation of thousands of rational skeptics.
This "madness of crowds" happens all the time. Charles MacKay wrote about it in 1841, in his book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Economics bubbles and busts are just one kind. But we can see a lush diversity of other superstitions and mass delusions.
It is a shame that it is now corrupting normal science. In healthy science the burden of proof is always on the proposer of any hypothesis. But now the burden of proof is on the skeptics in the case of human-caused global warming. But you can't prove a negative. As soon as the skeptics disprove one false claim, the Global Fraudsters are allowed to jump to another one, as long as they predict the same conclusion.
In real science the deck is never stacked against the skeptics. Rational skeptics are welcomed when people know what they are talking about. They can only help to sharpen the issues.
So this is not a scientific debate any more. Like the real estate bubble, the sub-prime mortgage bubble, the Year 2000 bubble and all the rest, there are billions of dollars riding on the outcome of the Global Doom scenarios. That's why all those expensive folks lived it up in Bali, with their private jets, luxury hotels, and massive carbon footprint.
for the complete entry: http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/12/the_algorism_of_global_doom.html
One of the illustrated methods was to conduct hundreds of studies and only refer to the ones that reached the desired conclusions. Perhaps there were 100 groups testing toothpaste and one of the groups had a 60% reduction in cavities. The other groups had either an increase in cavities or no statistical variation. The other 99 groups are ignored and Madison Avenue births a successful toothpaste campaign.
With any sense of integrity this is a lie, both in intent and in effect. You would think our professional media would protect us against this but they are more often willing accomplices.
This same form of statistical lying is evident in the Global Dooming debate. Dissenting research and opinion is discarded and discredited. In American Thinker (see recommended sites) James Lewis writes:
Algorism means "I'm always right, no matter how the facts turn out."
Global Dooming has a very simple explanation. There's nothing new about it. It is just the human desire to create a millenarian narrative that fits our political biases, whipped on by the Politically Correct elites of this world, fed by a huge infusion of money into climate modeling and other dubious science, plus unprecedented media hype, and finally, the intimidation of thousands of rational skeptics.
This "madness of crowds" happens all the time. Charles MacKay wrote about it in 1841, in his book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Economics bubbles and busts are just one kind. But we can see a lush diversity of other superstitions and mass delusions.
It is a shame that it is now corrupting normal science. In healthy science the burden of proof is always on the proposer of any hypothesis. But now the burden of proof is on the skeptics in the case of human-caused global warming. But you can't prove a negative. As soon as the skeptics disprove one false claim, the Global Fraudsters are allowed to jump to another one, as long as they predict the same conclusion.
In real science the deck is never stacked against the skeptics. Rational skeptics are welcomed when people know what they are talking about. They can only help to sharpen the issues.
So this is not a scientific debate any more. Like the real estate bubble, the sub-prime mortgage bubble, the Year 2000 bubble and all the rest, there are billions of dollars riding on the outcome of the Global Doom scenarios. That's why all those expensive folks lived it up in Bali, with their private jets, luxury hotels, and massive carbon footprint.
for the complete entry: http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/12/the_algorism_of_global_doom.html
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Sderot
Since the Israelis withdrew from Gaza thousands of rockets have rained on Sderot, a small town in the Negev. This video attempts to bring some attention to this tragedy. http://youtube.com/watch?v=HsEJt9AY5Pc
Yet Israel is pressured by world opinion to restrain. How would you respond or expect your country to respond?
Personally I think the time for restraint is long past.
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Primary Predictions
Predictions according to Intrade as of 12/15/07
Democrats
Iowa- Obama
NH- Clinton (close)
SC- Obama
FL- Clinton (big)
NV- Clinton
Mich-Clinton
CA- Clinton (Big)
PA- Clinton (big)
NJ- Clinton
Republicans
Iowa- Huckabee
NH- Romney
SC- Thomson (my call- still too open)
FL- Giuliani
NV- Romney
Mich- Romney
CA- Giuliani (still open)
PA- Giuliani
NJ- Giuliani
I will keep you updated and see how good a predictor this is.
Democrats
Iowa- Obama
NH- Clinton (close)
SC- Obama
FL- Clinton (big)
NV- Clinton
Mich-Clinton
CA- Clinton (Big)
PA- Clinton (big)
NJ- Clinton
Republicans
Iowa- Huckabee
NH- Romney
SC- Thomson (my call- still too open)
FL- Giuliani
NV- Romney
Mich- Romney
CA- Giuliani (still open)
PA- Giuliani
NJ- Giuliani
I will keep you updated and see how good a predictor this is.
Are We Overinsured?
Imagine that everytime you had a flat tire, a cracked windwhield, a dent in your bumper or needed an oil change that you filed a claim on your auto insurance. You would not be surprised if your auto insurance cost four times as much as it currently does.
Yet this is exactly how we treat our health inurance with co-pays and claims filed for every prescritpion and doctor's visit. We are overinsured and it drives our costs up.
This is largely due to the tax break companies like mine get to buy health insurance for its individual employees. An individual gets no deduction for buying their own health insurnace yet their employer does. The effect of this perverse incentive is that we buy too much coverage and the end consumer is separated from that decision.
This tax perversion probably had its origin when the maximum tax bracket was over 70% and this became a tax smart way to comensate highly paid executives. The benefit was extended to rank and file workers over the years during union negotiations. We became used to our employer as our insurance provider.
This tax deduction should be removed and individuals should buy their own policy with whatever coverage and deductible they want. The coverge would be theirs, to take with them from job to job as they see fit, just like their auto insurance. The health savings account is a step in that direction. But I am afraid that the public has been so spoiled and the demand so distorted that it may take years before the public gets accustomed to having control of this portion of their lives.
Yet this is exactly how we treat our health inurance with co-pays and claims filed for every prescritpion and doctor's visit. We are overinsured and it drives our costs up.
This is largely due to the tax break companies like mine get to buy health insurance for its individual employees. An individual gets no deduction for buying their own health insurnace yet their employer does. The effect of this perverse incentive is that we buy too much coverage and the end consumer is separated from that decision.
This tax perversion probably had its origin when the maximum tax bracket was over 70% and this became a tax smart way to comensate highly paid executives. The benefit was extended to rank and file workers over the years during union negotiations. We became used to our employer as our insurance provider.
This tax deduction should be removed and individuals should buy their own policy with whatever coverage and deductible they want. The coverge would be theirs, to take with them from job to job as they see fit, just like their auto insurance. The health savings account is a step in that direction. But I am afraid that the public has been so spoiled and the demand so distorted that it may take years before the public gets accustomed to having control of this portion of their lives.
Friday, December 14, 2007
It Is Only Baseball
OK. I realize I am not the greatest sports fan out there. I go to events but I do not follow the teams and leagues etc.
But can anyone explain to me why ex Senator George Mitchell spends 23 months investigating steroid use in professional baseball. Even more, why would the Congress of the most powerful nation on earth fighting wars in two countries and battling terrorism worldwide, securing social security, healthcare and our borders- would be wasting their time and our money investigating baseball.
IT IS F******G BASEBALL!
If the professional baseball leagues want to abolish steroid use in baseball it is very simple.
1. Pass a rule forbidding steroid use in baseball.
2. Frequently test the players on a random basis.
3. If a player fails the test - FIRE HIM- first offense. Ban him from the sport for life.
4. If rule number 3 is unclear, see rule number 1.
Any other rules and the sport is not serious about banning steroids. This is how it is done effectively in any other workplace.
Health Savings Accounts
We just offered an HSA (Health Savings Account) at our company. It features a big deductible and the option of placing money in a tax deferred account to pay your large deductibles with.
I will save about $1700 per year on my weekly cost over the PPO with a smaller deductible. The $5900 I can put in the HSA will save me another $2300 a year in taxes. The company will add another $360 a year for a total savings of $4360 per year. Tax free interest can also be earned on the account
I have to absorb another $5500 maximum ($10,000 total for family coverage) out of pocket before the insurance kicks in. It could be as high as an additional $8500 on a large single claim. Against the guaranteed ANNUAL savings of $4360 this seems like a good risk for me. The HSA account balance accumulates from year to year, so after the first year I should have enough to cover any additional costs in the deductable.
There are some complicating factors if you have expensive maintenance drugs, or a bunch of small children but it may be worthwhile even then.
I can spend the money on legitimate health expenses and deductibles, even if they would not have been covered under the full PPO plan- dental, eyeglasses, chiropractors, etc.
It is a great plan and makes a great step to restoring market accountability to health care. The difficulty is in the marginal income brackets that have a hard time putting enough money aside.
It is one of the better health care options made available for the consumers.
I will save about $1700 per year on my weekly cost over the PPO with a smaller deductible. The $5900 I can put in the HSA will save me another $2300 a year in taxes. The company will add another $360 a year for a total savings of $4360 per year. Tax free interest can also be earned on the account
I have to absorb another $5500 maximum ($10,000 total for family coverage) out of pocket before the insurance kicks in. It could be as high as an additional $8500 on a large single claim. Against the guaranteed ANNUAL savings of $4360 this seems like a good risk for me. The HSA account balance accumulates from year to year, so after the first year I should have enough to cover any additional costs in the deductable.
There are some complicating factors if you have expensive maintenance drugs, or a bunch of small children but it may be worthwhile even then.
I can spend the money on legitimate health expenses and deductibles, even if they would not have been covered under the full PPO plan- dental, eyeglasses, chiropractors, etc.
It is a great plan and makes a great step to restoring market accountability to health care. The difficulty is in the marginal income brackets that have a hard time putting enough money aside.
It is one of the better health care options made available for the consumers.
Wealth Myths
from the Tax Foundation
by Scott A. Hodge
http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/22804.html
The "superrich" the top 1% now pay 27.6 % of all federal taxes and a record 38.8% of the income taxes. The bottom 80%, 90 million households, pay 31.1 % of all federal taxes and just 13.7 % of income taxes.
In 1980 the bottom 80% paid 43.5% of all federal taxes compared to a 15% share paid by the wealthiest, even though the top marginal tax bracket was then double what is is today.
In 2000 the wealthiest households earned 17.8% of the nation's income compared to 13.5% in 2002. This is because of the drop in their income from the bust in the technology sector.
from HKO
1. On its face the claim that the rich are paying a smaller share is just a myth and does not stand up to basic facts.
2. The claims ignore the dynamics of our economy. While we do have rich it is rarely the same group that was rich ten years ago. In the 1960's the rich were asset based, today the wealthiest are knowledge and entrepreneurial based- the Waltons, Bill Gates and the Warren Buffets.
3. As the proportion of taxes paid has shifted far more to the wealthy it is easier for the lower income to support higher tax increases since they pay a much lower part of the burden.
4. When you rob Peter to pay Paul you can always count on Paul's approval. But in a global economy you also expect Peter to find a friendlier home. The rest of the world is experiencing the success of a friendlier capital environment. When the rich start leaving who then will pay the taxes?
5. The class warfare tactics of the left is a losing political strategy.
tips to Doug Ott
by Scott A. Hodge
http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/22804.html
The "superrich" the top 1% now pay 27.6 % of all federal taxes and a record 38.8% of the income taxes. The bottom 80%, 90 million households, pay 31.1 % of all federal taxes and just 13.7 % of income taxes.
In 1980 the bottom 80% paid 43.5% of all federal taxes compared to a 15% share paid by the wealthiest, even though the top marginal tax bracket was then double what is is today.
In 2000 the wealthiest households earned 17.8% of the nation's income compared to 13.5% in 2002. This is because of the drop in their income from the bust in the technology sector.
from HKO
1. On its face the claim that the rich are paying a smaller share is just a myth and does not stand up to basic facts.
2. The claims ignore the dynamics of our economy. While we do have rich it is rarely the same group that was rich ten years ago. In the 1960's the rich were asset based, today the wealthiest are knowledge and entrepreneurial based- the Waltons, Bill Gates and the Warren Buffets.
3. As the proportion of taxes paid has shifted far more to the wealthy it is easier for the lower income to support higher tax increases since they pay a much lower part of the burden.
4. When you rob Peter to pay Paul you can always count on Paul's approval. But in a global economy you also expect Peter to find a friendlier home. The rest of the world is experiencing the success of a friendlier capital environment. When the rich start leaving who then will pay the taxes?
5. The class warfare tactics of the left is a losing political strategy.
tips to Doug Ott
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
The Dream of Great Health Care on the Cheap
I contend that the problem with the several plans for national health insurance is that the politicians want to promise the population the best health care but don't want to pay for it.
at American Thinker (see recommended sites)
December 12, 2007
Are Health Care Costs 'Too High'?
By Steven M. Warshawsky
excerpts
On the one hand, high levels of health care spending is a good thing because it means that millions of Americans are receiving the highest quality medical care that is available anywhere in the world. Compared to citizens of other western countries, the average American has more access to the best doctors, the best facilities, the best medicines, and the best diagnostic and treatment technologies. This is why people from Canada and Britain and Europe, indeed from all over the world, come to the United States to obtain needed medical care that is not available to them in their home countries. This even includes Canadian mothers who are sent to the United States to give birth because their local public hospitals lack bed space and the ability to handle high-risk pregnancies. So much for the alleged superiority of "single-payer" health care systems.
Yet the highest quality medical care in the world comes at a steep price. This price has nothing to do with "greedy" doctors, HMOs, and drug companies. Rather, as with any other good or service, the price of medical care fundamentally is determined by the value of the resources required to produce it. And the resources required to produce, say, a world-class cardiologist or orthopedic surgeon or oncologist are extremely valuable.
Nevertheless, even in a free market, total health care spending in this country still will be very high. As noted previously, high-quality health care is extremely expensive, and Americans have enormous demand for the best medical care money can buy. There is nothing inherently "bad" about this. The United States is an extremely rich country, and we have enough wealth to expend a large percentage of our gross domestic product on health care, while still providing for our other vital needs, e.g., national defense.
However, we do not have enough money for the government to "promise" every American, regardless of age or condition, that he or she will receive the best available medical care. We are not that rich, and never will be.
read the complete post at http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/12/are_health_care_costs_too_high.html
at American Thinker (see recommended sites)
December 12, 2007
Are Health Care Costs 'Too High'?
By Steven M. Warshawsky
excerpts
On the one hand, high levels of health care spending is a good thing because it means that millions of Americans are receiving the highest quality medical care that is available anywhere in the world. Compared to citizens of other western countries, the average American has more access to the best doctors, the best facilities, the best medicines, and the best diagnostic and treatment technologies. This is why people from Canada and Britain and Europe, indeed from all over the world, come to the United States to obtain needed medical care that is not available to them in their home countries. This even includes Canadian mothers who are sent to the United States to give birth because their local public hospitals lack bed space and the ability to handle high-risk pregnancies. So much for the alleged superiority of "single-payer" health care systems.
Yet the highest quality medical care in the world comes at a steep price. This price has nothing to do with "greedy" doctors, HMOs, and drug companies. Rather, as with any other good or service, the price of medical care fundamentally is determined by the value of the resources required to produce it. And the resources required to produce, say, a world-class cardiologist or orthopedic surgeon or oncologist are extremely valuable.
Nevertheless, even in a free market, total health care spending in this country still will be very high. As noted previously, high-quality health care is extremely expensive, and Americans have enormous demand for the best medical care money can buy. There is nothing inherently "bad" about this. The United States is an extremely rich country, and we have enough wealth to expend a large percentage of our gross domestic product on health care, while still providing for our other vital needs, e.g., national defense.
However, we do not have enough money for the government to "promise" every American, regardless of age or condition, that he or she will receive the best available medical care. We are not that rich, and never will be.
read the complete post at http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/12/are_health_care_costs_too_high.html
Process or Principle
Jeffrey Lord writing in the Opinion Journal is critical of Romney because of his resort to data and process. Strong presidents have succeeded because of their commitment to principle often in the face of data that challenges their stand.
excerpts from www.OpinionJournal.com :
That Does Not Compute
Mitt Romney has a passion for data. A great president needs a passion for principle.
BY JEFFREY LORD
Wednesday, December 12, 2007 12:01 a.m.
Lincoln is staring at a sheet filled with numbers. The numbers are of Union casualties in the 10 most casualty-filled battles of the Civil War thus far. The banality of ink-on-paper belies the horrific human impact behind the figures. Over 13,000 Union casualties at the battle of Shiloh, 16,000 at Second Manassas, 12,000 at Antietam and yet again at Stone River, 17,000 at Chancellorsville, 23,000 at Gettysburg. And so on in one battle after another stretching over the past three years.
So as our ghostly Mr. Romney studies these "data"--now what? The conservative fear, of course, is that the "superpragmatic" Mr. Romney who places such faith in the process of data and trends would say to Lincoln exactly what the Democratic nominee of 1864, a battlefield general of the war, was saying in his campaign against Lincoln. The war is a "failure," said George McClellan. Stop it--right now. The numbers, the kind of data so prized by a possibly future President Romney, are unmistakably ghastly. Union kids and Confederate kids--Americans all--are being slaughtered on a scale that dwarfs the imagination.
But what of principle here? What of the passion for the principle--and passion plays no small role in Lincoln's adherence to principle--that no man, woman or child should be a slave in America? What about the fundamental principle of human freedom? What about keeping the Union together? The startling thought occurs that Mr. Romney would be whispering to Lincoln that the data speak for themselves. Passion should yield to process. And that would be that, if Mr. Romney carried the day as Lincoln's adviser.
Move Mr. Romney back to the future, or at least the relatively recent past. This time his ghost is hovering over Ronald Reagan's shoulder. President Reagan is one happy guy. His tax and budget cuts have passed, and he signed them into law. The Reagan revolution has begun. But it's now 1985, and there's a problem. David Stockman, Reagan's director of the Office of Management and Budget, a former congressman from Mr. Romney's native Michigan, the state where Romney's father was a star of the Republican liberal movement, is staring at reams of data. The results, as Mr. Stockman would write shortly after his angry departure from the Reagan White House, were--from Mr. Stockman's view--"frightening." The very idea that Reagan would stick with his tax cuts was a sign the president was in "dreamland." He was campaigning for re-election in 1984 on "false promises." Mr. Stockman--both in real time and in his bitter memoirs published in 1986--was nothing if not a fountain of data. And the data's conclusion, insisted Mr. Stockman, was that the Reagan revolution was a "failure." Reagan should abandon his passion for the principle of low taxes and cutting federal spending while restoring the military. Presumably, the Romney ghost sitting in the room with Reagan and Mr. Stockman would have agreed with . . . Mr. Stockman.
They are, of course, not viewed that way at all. The principles of Lincoln and Reagan carried the day precisely because each man was able to stare at the "data"--however gruesome or frightening they might be--and not blink. They are seen as great presidents and great leaders today because they understood at a visceral level that they should hold fast, refuse to yield to overwhelming demands from critics that they follow the data or that they adhere to a process that used something other than casualties or deficit projections as a measuring stick. Lincoln would not cave in on the principles of holding the Union together and the most basic principle of America--freedom. Reagan would not yield on the central conservative principle that tax cuts and less government spending were in fact the keys to America's future economic vitality.
Yet Mr. Romney did not need a visit to the Bush Library to understand why the Library does not contain the papers of a two-term president. The reason, of course, is that then-Vice President George H.W. Bush campaigned for the presidency in 1988 on the principle he phrased as "read my lips--no new taxes." He won. Yet in the name of precisely the process Mr. Romney lovingly describes--gathering data and looking for trends--the first President Bush was persuaded by Romneyesque advisers like then-Treasury aide Richard Darman to surrender bedrock conservative principle and raise taxes. The senior Mr. Bush was advised to choose data and process over principle. He did--and in short order had lots of time on his hands to decide the process for building a library about a one-term president while Bill and Hillary Clinton took charge.
But if conservatives have learned anything since 1964 it is this: principles count. A principle presidency always trumps a process presidency. Lincoln did better than Hoover, Reagan did better than Bush I or Carter. Better heading in the right direction with a faulty process than zipping along in the wrong direction simply because the process and the data are telling you things are wonderfully efficient. A train making exceptional time to Boston is useless if in fact you wanted to go to Miami.
for the complete article http://www.opinionjournal.com/federation/feature/?id=110010979
excerpts from www.OpinionJournal.com :
That Does Not Compute
Mitt Romney has a passion for data. A great president needs a passion for principle.
BY JEFFREY LORD
Wednesday, December 12, 2007 12:01 a.m.
Lincoln is staring at a sheet filled with numbers. The numbers are of Union casualties in the 10 most casualty-filled battles of the Civil War thus far. The banality of ink-on-paper belies the horrific human impact behind the figures. Over 13,000 Union casualties at the battle of Shiloh, 16,000 at Second Manassas, 12,000 at Antietam and yet again at Stone River, 17,000 at Chancellorsville, 23,000 at Gettysburg. And so on in one battle after another stretching over the past three years.
So as our ghostly Mr. Romney studies these "data"--now what? The conservative fear, of course, is that the "superpragmatic" Mr. Romney who places such faith in the process of data and trends would say to Lincoln exactly what the Democratic nominee of 1864, a battlefield general of the war, was saying in his campaign against Lincoln. The war is a "failure," said George McClellan. Stop it--right now. The numbers, the kind of data so prized by a possibly future President Romney, are unmistakably ghastly. Union kids and Confederate kids--Americans all--are being slaughtered on a scale that dwarfs the imagination.
But what of principle here? What of the passion for the principle--and passion plays no small role in Lincoln's adherence to principle--that no man, woman or child should be a slave in America? What about the fundamental principle of human freedom? What about keeping the Union together? The startling thought occurs that Mr. Romney would be whispering to Lincoln that the data speak for themselves. Passion should yield to process. And that would be that, if Mr. Romney carried the day as Lincoln's adviser.
Move Mr. Romney back to the future, or at least the relatively recent past. This time his ghost is hovering over Ronald Reagan's shoulder. President Reagan is one happy guy. His tax and budget cuts have passed, and he signed them into law. The Reagan revolution has begun. But it's now 1985, and there's a problem. David Stockman, Reagan's director of the Office of Management and Budget, a former congressman from Mr. Romney's native Michigan, the state where Romney's father was a star of the Republican liberal movement, is staring at reams of data. The results, as Mr. Stockman would write shortly after his angry departure from the Reagan White House, were--from Mr. Stockman's view--"frightening." The very idea that Reagan would stick with his tax cuts was a sign the president was in "dreamland." He was campaigning for re-election in 1984 on "false promises." Mr. Stockman--both in real time and in his bitter memoirs published in 1986--was nothing if not a fountain of data. And the data's conclusion, insisted Mr. Stockman, was that the Reagan revolution was a "failure." Reagan should abandon his passion for the principle of low taxes and cutting federal spending while restoring the military. Presumably, the Romney ghost sitting in the room with Reagan and Mr. Stockman would have agreed with . . . Mr. Stockman.
They are, of course, not viewed that way at all. The principles of Lincoln and Reagan carried the day precisely because each man was able to stare at the "data"--however gruesome or frightening they might be--and not blink. They are seen as great presidents and great leaders today because they understood at a visceral level that they should hold fast, refuse to yield to overwhelming demands from critics that they follow the data or that they adhere to a process that used something other than casualties or deficit projections as a measuring stick. Lincoln would not cave in on the principles of holding the Union together and the most basic principle of America--freedom. Reagan would not yield on the central conservative principle that tax cuts and less government spending were in fact the keys to America's future economic vitality.
Yet Mr. Romney did not need a visit to the Bush Library to understand why the Library does not contain the papers of a two-term president. The reason, of course, is that then-Vice President George H.W. Bush campaigned for the presidency in 1988 on the principle he phrased as "read my lips--no new taxes." He won. Yet in the name of precisely the process Mr. Romney lovingly describes--gathering data and looking for trends--the first President Bush was persuaded by Romneyesque advisers like then-Treasury aide Richard Darman to surrender bedrock conservative principle and raise taxes. The senior Mr. Bush was advised to choose data and process over principle. He did--and in short order had lots of time on his hands to decide the process for building a library about a one-term president while Bill and Hillary Clinton took charge.
But if conservatives have learned anything since 1964 it is this: principles count. A principle presidency always trumps a process presidency. Lincoln did better than Hoover, Reagan did better than Bush I or Carter. Better heading in the right direction with a faulty process than zipping along in the wrong direction simply because the process and the data are telling you things are wonderfully efficient. A train making exceptional time to Boston is useless if in fact you wanted to go to Miami.
for the complete article http://www.opinionjournal.com/federation/feature/?id=110010979
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Don't Believe Everything You Read
.. especially on the internet.
I just got an e-mail from a friend that Starbucks refused to send their coffee to troops in the field and responded with a letter saying that the reason is that they do not support the war or the troops.
It isn't true.
Perhaps you have seen the e-mail that the British have stopped teaching the holocaust in deference to the sensitivities of the Muslims in the UK.
The UK in the above story has morphed into the story that the University of Kentucky has stopped teaching the holocaust.
untrue in both cases. Yet I heard the Fox News even bought into it. (actually a single school in northern England did eliminate it from a single course.)
My favorite was the one circulated that Tommy Hilfiger announced on Oprah that he did not want minorities to wear his clothes because it debased his market.
Not only did he never say it he had never been on Oprah at that point.
If you think for a brief moment about any of these vicious rumors they barely sound believable, and they are not.
We believe what we want to believe, and the result is our biases make us believe some libelous and preposterous things. Unfortunately even the professionals succumb to this flaw. Note the ABC story on Mike Huckabee. http://rebelyid.blogspot.com/2007/12/who-will-be-fired-from-abc.html
The internet also makes it easy to verify and confirm these ridiculous stories. Do us all a favor and check these stories before you forward them on.
Use http://www.snopes.com/ and http://factcheck.org/
I just got an e-mail from a friend that Starbucks refused to send their coffee to troops in the field and responded with a letter saying that the reason is that they do not support the war or the troops.
It isn't true.
Perhaps you have seen the e-mail that the British have stopped teaching the holocaust in deference to the sensitivities of the Muslims in the UK.
The UK in the above story has morphed into the story that the University of Kentucky has stopped teaching the holocaust.
untrue in both cases. Yet I heard the Fox News even bought into it. (actually a single school in northern England did eliminate it from a single course.)
My favorite was the one circulated that Tommy Hilfiger announced on Oprah that he did not want minorities to wear his clothes because it debased his market.
Not only did he never say it he had never been on Oprah at that point.
If you think for a brief moment about any of these vicious rumors they barely sound believable, and they are not.
We believe what we want to believe, and the result is our biases make us believe some libelous and preposterous things. Unfortunately even the professionals succumb to this flaw. Note the ABC story on Mike Huckabee. http://rebelyid.blogspot.com/2007/12/who-will-be-fired-from-abc.html
The internet also makes it easy to verify and confirm these ridiculous stories. Do us all a favor and check these stories before you forward them on.
Use http://www.snopes.com/ and http://factcheck.org/
A Braille Tattoo
Braille Tattoo
By JOHN GLASSIE
In April, while taking a university course on “body technology,” a Czech art student named Klara Jirkova had a vision of a “touchable ‘tattoo’ for blind people.” According to her project paper, one way to do it would be to emboss the surface of your arm, say, with a word or message in Braille by having stainless-steel beads surgically implanted under your skin — thereby creating a body modification meant not just to decorate “but to be touched and read.”
Jirkova, who is 24, says “this was really meant to be used by blind people” and “not something that was supposed to become trendy.” Nevertheless, her proposal sent the trend-spotting sectors of the blogosphere into a tizzy after it went up on the school’s Web site in August. Hundreds of blogs posted a Photoshopped image that Jirkova made of a Braille tattoo on a girl’s arm, noting that the digitally created protrusions of flesh spelled “sun.”
It’s not clear, however, whether anybody has actually gotten a Braille implant. Jirkova says she probably won’t get one herself (she has no tattoos) but has three friends who want one. “Implants are a little problematic in the Czech Republic,” she says. “It must be a doctor who does it, and it’s not so easy to find one who is interested.” In the United States, subdermal implants — small subcutaneous horns on the forehead, for instance — have become more popular as a mode of body modification in recent years, but are still fairly rare.
Among the blind, there is disagreement about the satisfaction a Braille tattoo might provide. One visually-impaired blogger who goes by Etana wrote that the idea was “not only sensical but sensual in my book.” But others point out that only about 10 percent of visually-impaired people read Braille. “At the level of universal design utopianism, it’s fraught with problems,” says Stephen Kuusisto, the author of “Eavesdropping: A Memoir of Blindness and Listening,” who has been blind since birth. “Having said that, I agree that we should all have the right to touch each other and read a message.
tips to Doug Ott
Is there a braille sign that says "Do Not Touch" ?
By JOHN GLASSIE
In April, while taking a university course on “body technology,” a Czech art student named Klara Jirkova had a vision of a “touchable ‘tattoo’ for blind people.” According to her project paper, one way to do it would be to emboss the surface of your arm, say, with a word or message in Braille by having stainless-steel beads surgically implanted under your skin — thereby creating a body modification meant not just to decorate “but to be touched and read.”
Jirkova, who is 24, says “this was really meant to be used by blind people” and “not something that was supposed to become trendy.” Nevertheless, her proposal sent the trend-spotting sectors of the blogosphere into a tizzy after it went up on the school’s Web site in August. Hundreds of blogs posted a Photoshopped image that Jirkova made of a Braille tattoo on a girl’s arm, noting that the digitally created protrusions of flesh spelled “sun.”
It’s not clear, however, whether anybody has actually gotten a Braille implant. Jirkova says she probably won’t get one herself (she has no tattoos) but has three friends who want one. “Implants are a little problematic in the Czech Republic,” she says. “It must be a doctor who does it, and it’s not so easy to find one who is interested.” In the United States, subdermal implants — small subcutaneous horns on the forehead, for instance — have become more popular as a mode of body modification in recent years, but are still fairly rare.
Among the blind, there is disagreement about the satisfaction a Braille tattoo might provide. One visually-impaired blogger who goes by Etana wrote that the idea was “not only sensical but sensual in my book.” But others point out that only about 10 percent of visually-impaired people read Braille. “At the level of universal design utopianism, it’s fraught with problems,” says Stephen Kuusisto, the author of “Eavesdropping: A Memoir of Blindness and Listening,” who has been blind since birth. “Having said that, I agree that we should all have the right to touch each other and read a message.
tips to Doug Ott
Is there a braille sign that says "Do Not Touch" ?
Can You Trust Our Intelligence Estimates?
The new NIE, National Intelligence Estimate, reassures us Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, and has not been since 2003.
Was this a dividend from the Iraq War like Libya?
The history of our intelligence does not inspire confidence. They underestimated the nuclear capabilities of Iraq during the Kuwait invasion and overestimated it before the 2003 invasion. It was called a "a slam dunk." Our intelligence was also surprised when Pakistan went nuclear, when Russia went nuclear, when Russia invaded Afghanistan, when Saddam invaded Kuwait and when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor.
A NIE estimate in 1962 addressing the USSR putting missiles in Cuba said it would "be incompatible with Soviet practice to date and with Soviet policy as we see it." 25 days later our U-2s were photographing missile sites in Cuba.
And of course 911 caught them completely off guard.
No one ever developed their nuclear arsenal in a public forum.
We need to understand the limits of our intelligence services, especially now.
Tips to Jeff Jacoby at the Boston Globe and Bret Stevens at Opinion Journal
Was this a dividend from the Iraq War like Libya?
The history of our intelligence does not inspire confidence. They underestimated the nuclear capabilities of Iraq during the Kuwait invasion and overestimated it before the 2003 invasion. It was called a "a slam dunk." Our intelligence was also surprised when Pakistan went nuclear, when Russia went nuclear, when Russia invaded Afghanistan, when Saddam invaded Kuwait and when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor.
A NIE estimate in 1962 addressing the USSR putting missiles in Cuba said it would "be incompatible with Soviet practice to date and with Soviet policy as we see it." 25 days later our U-2s were photographing missile sites in Cuba.
And of course 911 caught them completely off guard.
No one ever developed their nuclear arsenal in a public forum.
We need to understand the limits of our intelligence services, especially now.
Tips to Jeff Jacoby at the Boston Globe and Bret Stevens at Opinion Journal
Monday, December 10, 2007
Should We Brain Scan Our Presidents?
IN an AJC article on page 11, Monday Dec 10, 2007, Daniel Amen, a neuropsychiatrist and published author, says yes. Three of the four last presidents have shown clear brain pathology, he contends. Reagan's Alzheimers was evident during his last term. President Clinton's moral lapses and problems with bad judgement indicated problems in the prefrontal cortex. Bush's struggle with language and emotional rigidity are symptoms of temporal lobe pathology.
My question: what do you do with the information when you get it? Who decides if he should leave office or seek treatment?
Would you rather have a president with certain pathologies that is effective and decisive or a president who is pathology free and just makes lousy decisions (Jimmy Carter?)
It is an interesting question, but not very functional.
My question: what do you do with the information when you get it? Who decides if he should leave office or seek treatment?
Would you rather have a president with certain pathologies that is effective and decisive or a president who is pathology free and just makes lousy decisions (Jimmy Carter?)
It is an interesting question, but not very functional.
A Perspective Adjustment
Michael Vick was sentenced to 23 months for his dogfighting ring. Don't get me wrong; I love animals. We have 5 cats, two dogs, and this wonderful human child and I am against dogfighting for sport, and I hope this sentence helps to eliminate it.
But we pay pugilists millions of dollars to beat the crap out of each other for Pay for View. Ringside seats often cost thousands.
Seems we need a perspective adjustment.
Saturday, December 8, 2007
Holy Zakkerz!
So Harvey Alperin and I go back to high school days. His two daughters move to New York, Jamie gets married and she and her sister Lauren are loving the big city. They have a problem wearing long pants that drape properly over their high heels that don’t drag the ground when they wear flats. Harvey has a little background in garments and with wife Mindy, their two daughters create Zakkerz, a magnetic clip that hold the pants hem in place for flats and allows you to wear them down with heels.
It is featured in the December issue of In Style Magazine and at their web site http://zakkerz.com/ Sales are starting to boom and another great American entrepreneurial tale is upon us. I hope they all make a mint!
It is featured in the December issue of In Style Magazine and at their web site http://zakkerz.com/ Sales are starting to boom and another great American entrepreneurial tale is upon us. I hope they all make a mint!
The Growth of Alternative Fuels
Getting America less dependent on foreign oil has great security implications because dollars we spend on Middle Eastern oil are going to fund radical Islamic terroristic activity, largely targeting America. Because this is relevant beyond our mere personal budgets, activists, liberal and conservative, have called for a “Manhattan Project” (as in the project used to develop the atom bomb in WWII) funded by the government to get us off oil.
High prices have succeeded in creating demand for alternative fuels and the vehicles that use them. Our local Ford dealer stays sold out of its hybrid vehicles, and they are becoming more popular. If you go to http://www.chevy.com/ you will see pending technology using ethanol, electric and fuel cell technology. We have a Manhattan Project, it is the free market and American ingenuity.
And in Israel “a team of scientists at the Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, led by Prof. Stuart Licht, has been working for several years on producing hydrogen by so-called solar water splitting systems. If the hydrogen production method could be made efficient enough hydrogen fuel cells could be used to power electric cars using energy that would be constantly renewable, overcoming problems with recharging, weight, pollution and short battery life that plague today's electric vehicles.” From Facts of Israel.org.
Oil prices are up because of a general trend in commodity prices; aluminum, steel, gold, copper and other commodities are also up. Demand is driven by a growing economy and the upcoming of huge demand in China and India.
But this demand has also driven the R&D needed to improve technology for alternate vehicles and this will not reverse.
While I cheer the ability tell the Middle Eastern oil mongers to pound sound, there is a down side; Iran, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern oil exporters have nothing to fall back on when their oil revenue dries up. This may lead to further political instability. It may also get them to wake up and get into the twentieth century.
High prices have succeeded in creating demand for alternative fuels and the vehicles that use them. Our local Ford dealer stays sold out of its hybrid vehicles, and they are becoming more popular. If you go to http://www.chevy.com/ you will see pending technology using ethanol, electric and fuel cell technology. We have a Manhattan Project, it is the free market and American ingenuity.
And in Israel “a team of scientists at the Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, led by Prof. Stuart Licht, has been working for several years on producing hydrogen by so-called solar water splitting systems. If the hydrogen production method could be made efficient enough hydrogen fuel cells could be used to power electric cars using energy that would be constantly renewable, overcoming problems with recharging, weight, pollution and short battery life that plague today's electric vehicles.” From Facts of Israel.org.
Oil prices are up because of a general trend in commodity prices; aluminum, steel, gold, copper and other commodities are also up. Demand is driven by a growing economy and the upcoming of huge demand in China and India.
But this demand has also driven the R&D needed to improve technology for alternate vehicles and this will not reverse.
While I cheer the ability tell the Middle Eastern oil mongers to pound sound, there is a down side; Iran, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern oil exporters have nothing to fall back on when their oil revenue dries up. This may lead to further political instability. It may also get them to wake up and get into the twentieth century.
How Reliable is the NIE Report on Iran?
from Caroline Glick , THE JERUSALEM POST commenting on the new NIE Report on Iran's nuclear program
Column One: The abandonment of the Jews
For instance, Agence France-Presse reported that in 2005 Iran bought 18 Russian SS-N-6 ballistic missiles from North Korea. The North Koreans had modified the missiles, which were originally submarine-launched, to enable them to be launched from land-based mobile launchers and renamed them BM-25s. What is notable about these missiles is that the Soviets designed them specifically to carry one megaton nuclear warheads.
As the on-line intelligence newsletter NightWatch noted this week, "Curious minds want to know why would Iran buy such a system from North Korea in 2005, if it had abandoned its nuclear warhead program in 2003?"
Beyond that, the NIE makes a strange distinction between Iran's "civilian" nuclear program which has not stopped for a moment and its "military" program which supposedly ended in 2003. Since both programs are controlled and run by the Revolutionary Guards, it is obvious that no such distinction exists for the Iranians. And as former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton wrote Thursday in The Washington Post, "It has always been Iran's 'civilian' program that posed the main risk of nuclear 'breakout.'"
Finally the US intelligence community's pathetic track record must be taken into account. American intelligence agencies failed to take note of the al-Qaida threat to US security before September 11. It misjudged Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction capabilities and intentions. And most recently, it failed to take notice of Syria's nuclear program even though the North Korean nuclear facility which Israel reportedly destroyed on September 6 was built above ground.
As for that, the Israeli strike showed clearly that there is no reason to assume that Iran's nuclear program is located only in Iran. It is reasonable to assume that some of its components are located in Syria, North Korea and Pakistan and perhaps in China and Russia as well.
The Israeli strike in Syria also demonstrated the superiority of Israel's intelligence on weapons of mass destruction programs over America's. And the NIE takes revenge on Israel for its comparative advantage.
Given the NIE's assertion that Iran is not a threat, the report is a direct assault on the credibility of Israel's intelligence services. Moreover, since Israel's intelligence services insist that Iran's nuclear program is the greatest threat to global security, the NIE serves to paint Israel's intelligence community not merely as unreliable, but as hostile to American interests.
for the complete story
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1196847275020&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter
Column One: The abandonment of the Jews
For instance, Agence France-Presse reported that in 2005 Iran bought 18 Russian SS-N-6 ballistic missiles from North Korea. The North Koreans had modified the missiles, which were originally submarine-launched, to enable them to be launched from land-based mobile launchers and renamed them BM-25s. What is notable about these missiles is that the Soviets designed them specifically to carry one megaton nuclear warheads.
As the on-line intelligence newsletter NightWatch noted this week, "Curious minds want to know why would Iran buy such a system from North Korea in 2005, if it had abandoned its nuclear warhead program in 2003?"
Beyond that, the NIE makes a strange distinction between Iran's "civilian" nuclear program which has not stopped for a moment and its "military" program which supposedly ended in 2003. Since both programs are controlled and run by the Revolutionary Guards, it is obvious that no such distinction exists for the Iranians. And as former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton wrote Thursday in The Washington Post, "It has always been Iran's 'civilian' program that posed the main risk of nuclear 'breakout.'"
Finally the US intelligence community's pathetic track record must be taken into account. American intelligence agencies failed to take note of the al-Qaida threat to US security before September 11. It misjudged Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction capabilities and intentions. And most recently, it failed to take notice of Syria's nuclear program even though the North Korean nuclear facility which Israel reportedly destroyed on September 6 was built above ground.
As for that, the Israeli strike showed clearly that there is no reason to assume that Iran's nuclear program is located only in Iran. It is reasonable to assume that some of its components are located in Syria, North Korea and Pakistan and perhaps in China and Russia as well.
The Israeli strike in Syria also demonstrated the superiority of Israel's intelligence on weapons of mass destruction programs over America's. And the NIE takes revenge on Israel for its comparative advantage.
Given the NIE's assertion that Iran is not a threat, the report is a direct assault on the credibility of Israel's intelligence services. Moreover, since Israel's intelligence services insist that Iran's nuclear program is the greatest threat to global security, the NIE serves to paint Israel's intelligence community not merely as unreliable, but as hostile to American interests.
for the complete story
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1196847275020&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter
Your Vote for an iPod
From the Economist Nov 24-30th
A poll of New York University students revealed that 20% would give up their right to vote in the next election for an iPod and 2/3 would do so for a full year’s college tuition. Half would renounce their vote permanently for $1m. Originally from the Washington Square News.
A poll of New York University students revealed that 20% would give up their right to vote in the next election for an iPod and 2/3 would do so for a full year’s college tuition. Half would renounce their vote permanently for $1m. Originally from the Washington Square News.
Who Will Be Fired from ABC?
ABC has pulled a job of journalistic malfeasance that may top the unsubstantiated lies that justifiably cost Dan Rather his job. The story accused then Governor Mike Huckabee of pardoning Wayne Dumond who then went on to commit another rape.
The story was completely false. Dumond was not pardoned, he was parolled- a huge difference. The parole board, independent of Huckabee, was appointed by governors Bill Clinton and his democratic successor Jim Guy Tucker. He was up for parole because Jim Guy Tucker reduced his sentence.
“The parole board is an independent entity that used its constitutional power to secure Dumond’s release. In Arkansas, the Governor has no vote or say in this process.” Yet Huckabee did side with his release because of evidence released such as no evidence of his DNA at the scene, no match from the semen on the victim, and the fact that the victim’s account and the evidence were at odds. This was ommitted from the story.
Furthermore Dumond was assaulted in his house, hogtied and castrated, with his testicles displayed in a jar on the desk of Sheriff Conlee. While this is not evidence that would lead to a parole, it is certainly germane to the story that there was some credibility to the action. Not included in the ABC story.
It may have been worth noting that the original victim was a cousin of Bill Clinton. Apparently not to ABC.
I have no opinion of Mike Huckabee. And I understand that people in office who do make decisions will always have some mistakes that could be used against them.
But ABC’s bias and shoddy journalism is a disgrace. They got the original story from Ariana Huffington’s blog which is about as biased as one can get. They obviously failed to do even minimal fact checking. It is conceivable that a bias may have alerted them to the story, but it was just piss poor journalism that allowed them to run such a pack of lies and distortion.
See the whole story at http://www.newmediajournal.us/staff/cherry/12072007.htm
Tips top Blond Sagacity
The story was completely false. Dumond was not pardoned, he was parolled- a huge difference. The parole board, independent of Huckabee, was appointed by governors Bill Clinton and his democratic successor Jim Guy Tucker. He was up for parole because Jim Guy Tucker reduced his sentence.
“The parole board is an independent entity that used its constitutional power to secure Dumond’s release. In Arkansas, the Governor has no vote or say in this process.” Yet Huckabee did side with his release because of evidence released such as no evidence of his DNA at the scene, no match from the semen on the victim, and the fact that the victim’s account and the evidence were at odds. This was ommitted from the story.
Furthermore Dumond was assaulted in his house, hogtied and castrated, with his testicles displayed in a jar on the desk of Sheriff Conlee. While this is not evidence that would lead to a parole, it is certainly germane to the story that there was some credibility to the action. Not included in the ABC story.
It may have been worth noting that the original victim was a cousin of Bill Clinton. Apparently not to ABC.
I have no opinion of Mike Huckabee. And I understand that people in office who do make decisions will always have some mistakes that could be used against them.
But ABC’s bias and shoddy journalism is a disgrace. They got the original story from Ariana Huffington’s blog which is about as biased as one can get. They obviously failed to do even minimal fact checking. It is conceivable that a bias may have alerted them to the story, but it was just piss poor journalism that allowed them to run such a pack of lies and distortion.
See the whole story at http://www.newmediajournal.us/staff/cherry/12072007.htm
Tips top Blond Sagacity
Dixie
The Song Dixie was written in a New York hotel by a man from Ohio, Daniel Decatur Emmett for a popular blackface minstrel show in 1859. It was played for Jefferson Davis’s inauguration and became the marching song of the Confederate army.
From Rick Beyer’s The Greatest Story Never Told
From Rick Beyer’s The Greatest Story Never Told
The Great Peshtigo Fire
The Chicago Fire which killed 250 people was not the deadliest fire as commonly believed. It was the Peshtigo fire in northern Wisconsin that killed more than a thousand people. It occurred 250 north of Chicago ..... on the very same night.
From Rick Beyer’s The Greatest Story Never Told
From Rick Beyer’s The Greatest Story Never Told
Friday, December 7, 2007
Pens !
One of the finest pen stores in the southeast is Artlite in Atlanta on Cheshire Bridge near the Piedmont Fork. If you do not use fountain pens give one a try. My favorites pens were recommended by Mike Lite. His Brother Stuart stocks the finest array of unusual journals around.
The Sailor, a Japanese made Pen, is the smoothest writing fine point I have. I also have a Waterman and a Pelikan that write effortlessly, smoothly and never skip. These pens sell for about $200 to $300 each. Pen users tend to be a bit obsessive and there are a lot of collectors. Mont Blancs are OK ( I have a few) but there are others that are stunning to look at, write just as good if not better and cost less.
Check out the Omas, the Visconti, the Du Pont and others. If you get over $2000 check out the David Oscarson and Michel Perchin creations- They are works of art.
View a beautiful Perchin - http://www.bittner.com/pensDetail.aspx?Brand=perchin&id=1252&title=Michel%20Perchin&penType=Fountain%20Pen
and one of the Oscarson greats - http://www.fahrneyspens.com/Item--i-81911S
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
The Bay Area Bug Eating Society
BABES- The Bay Area Bug Eating Society is dedicated to eating bugs.
from their site http://www.planetscott.com/babes/
The Bay Area Bug Eating Society was formed on February 8, 1999. This club is dedicated to eating bugs* A great big welcome to all of the new BABES members who showed up at the FREE BABES BBBQ (the extra "B" stands for "BUG") this recent Halloween. Of course, it is never too late to sign up. Or, if you're BUG Curious, follow these links, and enjoy your stay. Eating insects is healthy and fun!
from HKO
I haven't found a dish yet that could not be improved with Bar-B-Q sauce!
The Other Clinton Scandal?
The greatest scandal from the Bill Clinton presidency has been largely unreported. His Balkan policy aided al-Qaeda operations, consistently supporting Bonian Muslims against the Serbs, and strengthening the radical Muslim base in Europe. Bosnia became an important terrorist staging ground.
Clinton not only carried out an air war against the Serbs through NATO without consulting Congress, he continued to bomb the Serbs AFTER the House voted against legislation to authorize the air war.
from "33 Questions About American History You're Not Supposed to Ask" by Thomas E Woods, Jr.
from HKO
to be fair, didn't Reagan's support of al-Qaeda in Afganistan against the Russians also contribute to their rise in their power? In another chapter in the book Woods dispels the common myth that conservatives are more likely to get us into foreign wars than liberals. Vietnam and WWI in his view were the result of utopian goverment desires to shape the world to their vision.
The US entry into WWI under Wilson allowed the treacherously counterproductive terms to be forced on Germany that so easily led to WWII. In 1939 we would have loved to have had the conservative German government of 1913 back in power.
We are all geniuses in hindsight.
Clinton not only carried out an air war against the Serbs through NATO without consulting Congress, he continued to bomb the Serbs AFTER the House voted against legislation to authorize the air war.
from "33 Questions About American History You're Not Supposed to Ask" by Thomas E Woods, Jr.
from HKO
to be fair, didn't Reagan's support of al-Qaeda in Afganistan against the Russians also contribute to their rise in their power? In another chapter in the book Woods dispels the common myth that conservatives are more likely to get us into foreign wars than liberals. Vietnam and WWI in his view were the result of utopian goverment desires to shape the world to their vision.
The US entry into WWI under Wilson allowed the treacherously counterproductive terms to be forced on Germany that so easily led to WWII. In 1939 we would have loved to have had the conservative German government of 1913 back in power.
We are all geniuses in hindsight.
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Happy Chanukah !
Chanukah starts tonight, December 4, or the 25th of Kislev (we start the day at sundown- Dec 4th is really the 24th of Kislev) on the Jewish Calendar. The Jewish Calendar does not exactly sync with the Gregorian so it seems to move around. Next year is starts on December 28th.
Its is important not to use the Jewish calendar to pay your taxes.
Though it falls around the Christmas season its is not really a Jewish Christmas. Chanukah celebrates a military defeat of Antiochus III, a successor of Alexander the Great, by the Macabbees after a three year war about 140 years before the birth of Jesus. It is more like a Fourth of July.
Alexander the Great allowed the independence of local customs and religions, a policy Antiochus did not continue. Antiochus was oppressive and intolerant of the Jews. The success of the Macabbees was a victory for religious freedom.
The eight days of candles is a tradition attributed to the temple light burning for 8 days with only a days worth of oil. I believe the gift giving part was added in the US so the Jewish kids would not get a complex while their non Jewish friends were raking in the loot. The circumcision thing had to be enough of a tough sell, but denying the kids gifts during the ultimate season of gifts was just too hard to explain every single year.
Such is the origin of some traditions.
for more about the history of the holiday : http://www.jewfaq.org/holiday7.htm
Jews generally do not have Christmas trees unless it is a mixed marriage. Some of our non Christian friends believe we are denied a holiday joy because of this. Not so- It just is not our holiday. It is easy for those in the majority to become ethnocentric- unable to see a different culture or tradition as the center of life. I personally enjoy seeing everyone else's trees and it is a beautiful tradition. It is just much easier to clean up after a menorah.
P.S.
I got a new iPod on the first night. Thanks Debbie. My old iPod is so old it uses tiny rolls of paper with little holes punched in them.
It Doesn't Make Any Difference Which End of the Boat Springs the Leak
Macon's mayor-elect Robert Reichert spoke at our Monday Rotary Club and clarified Macon's fiscal predicament more in 10 minutes than I have heard in 10 years. The tax base in Macon is growing at 2.1%, less than inflation, causing the city to increase the millage rate to sustain services that have escalated at least with the rate of inflation (salaries, fuel, etc).
The county tax base has grown at 4.1%, above the inflation rate, allowing them to sustain services without raising the millage rate. This is not surprising since the county has more room to grow and is thus more likely to see new development.
The directive Reichert faces to solve the city's long term issue is to increase the tax base. This will mean annexing properties in the short run, and attracting population growth and business development to the city in the long run. An increase in the city millage rate will not be a surprise.
The city is excited to have Reichert at the helm, especially after two terms of our current Mayor: the contrast could not be greater.
He has a mandate to do what he needs and the smart time to annex is early in his adminstration while the bride and groom are still smiling. I urge him to be fair in annexing: if you are going annex the homes in the peripheral parts, annex the elite Idle Hour Country Club with its obvioulsy gerrymandered property lines.
I have long resisted property tax increases, but the demise of the city tax base affects us greatly. Annexation is only a short term fix if Macon is not made to attact new growth by other means such as better policing, solid infrastructure and fiscally sound management.
Robert quoted, "It doesn't make any difference which end of the boat springs the leak." It is to the advantage of everyone in the boat to fix it.
Sunday, December 2, 2007
The best antidote for radical Islamic terror is a woman’s purple finger.
Great words from Oliver North about the Annapolis Peace Conference. Ralph Peters has also commented that the war in the Middle East is largely about women's rights.
from Foxnews http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,313964,00.html
If the Annapolis Conference “peace process” is to work, President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have to focus on five issues that are far more crucial than drawing lines on a map — and convince the Mideast “moderates” involved of their importance.
First, the “Arab Street” must be reminded regularly that jihadist masterminds like Ahmadinejad, bin Laden, Nasrallah and Haniyeh aren’t eager to find martyrdom. To the extent they can, they remain on the run and in hiding, relegating the “glory” of exploding bodies to their followers and their followers’ children. Those followers need to be constantly reminded that their leaders are cowards.
Second, Muslim moderates have to point out to their people that the radical Islamic terrorists in Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere may be able to construct car bombs, use cell phones as detonators, and know how to use AK-47s, RPGs, and video cameras to record their atrocities. But none of them are capable of building a car, a cell phone, a camera or even a relatively simple automatic rifle. They can blow up a generating station, but couldn’t make a light bulb. The people of the Mideast need to know that “jihadists” seeking to “drive out the infidels” are destroyers not builders.
Third, conference participants need to tell the people in their own countries that they are not ashamed to be friends of America — that Americans have brought freedom and opportunity to hundreds of millions around the globe. They need to remind their countrymen that Americans send their young people around the world not to fight for gold or oil or colonial conquest — but to offer others the hope of freedom; that Christianity, Judaism and individual liberty aren’t threats to Islam — only to the power of the radical Islamists.
Fourth, those at Annapolis need to know that Islamic radicals like bin Laden, the theo-fascist regime in Tehran and terror kingpins like Nasrallah and Haniyeh count on an illiterate and impoverished citizenry that can be incited to frenzy or suicidal terror by defaming Jews or Americans. The palliative for this misery-driven fury is education — real education — not the indoctrination of a madrassa. Teaching young Muslims math, science, medicine, accounting and law will give them tools to live better instead of reasons to die the “right way” by killing an “infidel.”
Finally, and perhaps most important, the conference participants must offer Muslim women real rights — and soon.In far too many places women are not allowed to have their own bank accounts, use a cell phone In far too many places women are not allowed to have their own bank accounts, use a cell phone and participate in political debate or to vote. Radical Islamic courts treat girls as young as nine as adults, subject women to death by stoning for adultery and permit female genital mutilation.
Countries and regions ruled by radical Islamists don’t permit women to travel unless escorted by a male relative, limit the availability of medical care and forbid access to higher education. In far too many places women are not allowed to have their own bank accounts, use a cell phone, and participate in political debate or to vote.
Just before the December, 2005 election in Iraq, Mamun Rashid, governor of Al Anbar Province, told me, “this election will change everything because women are going to vote.”
When I asked him why that would change things in Iraq, he replied, “Because women don’t vote to have their sons become suicide bombers.” Nearly half the ballots in the 2005 election were cast by women.
The American troops I’m heading off to cover for FOX News understand this. They realize that the reduced violence in Iraq today can be attributed to much more than simply a “surge” in U.S. forces.
If a broader “peace process” is to work in the Middle East, then the Annapolis Conference participants need to be convinced that granting women the right to vote is essential. The best antidote for radical Islamic terror is a woman’s purple finger.
from Foxnews http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,313964,00.html
If the Annapolis Conference “peace process” is to work, President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have to focus on five issues that are far more crucial than drawing lines on a map — and convince the Mideast “moderates” involved of their importance.
First, the “Arab Street” must be reminded regularly that jihadist masterminds like Ahmadinejad, bin Laden, Nasrallah and Haniyeh aren’t eager to find martyrdom. To the extent they can, they remain on the run and in hiding, relegating the “glory” of exploding bodies to their followers and their followers’ children. Those followers need to be constantly reminded that their leaders are cowards.
Second, Muslim moderates have to point out to their people that the radical Islamic terrorists in Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere may be able to construct car bombs, use cell phones as detonators, and know how to use AK-47s, RPGs, and video cameras to record their atrocities. But none of them are capable of building a car, a cell phone, a camera or even a relatively simple automatic rifle. They can blow up a generating station, but couldn’t make a light bulb. The people of the Mideast need to know that “jihadists” seeking to “drive out the infidels” are destroyers not builders.
Third, conference participants need to tell the people in their own countries that they are not ashamed to be friends of America — that Americans have brought freedom and opportunity to hundreds of millions around the globe. They need to remind their countrymen that Americans send their young people around the world not to fight for gold or oil or colonial conquest — but to offer others the hope of freedom; that Christianity, Judaism and individual liberty aren’t threats to Islam — only to the power of the radical Islamists.
Fourth, those at Annapolis need to know that Islamic radicals like bin Laden, the theo-fascist regime in Tehran and terror kingpins like Nasrallah and Haniyeh count on an illiterate and impoverished citizenry that can be incited to frenzy or suicidal terror by defaming Jews or Americans. The palliative for this misery-driven fury is education — real education — not the indoctrination of a madrassa. Teaching young Muslims math, science, medicine, accounting and law will give them tools to live better instead of reasons to die the “right way” by killing an “infidel.”
Finally, and perhaps most important, the conference participants must offer Muslim women real rights — and soon.In far too many places women are not allowed to have their own bank accounts, use a cell phone In far too many places women are not allowed to have their own bank accounts, use a cell phone and participate in political debate or to vote. Radical Islamic courts treat girls as young as nine as adults, subject women to death by stoning for adultery and permit female genital mutilation.
Countries and regions ruled by radical Islamists don’t permit women to travel unless escorted by a male relative, limit the availability of medical care and forbid access to higher education. In far too many places women are not allowed to have their own bank accounts, use a cell phone, and participate in political debate or to vote.
Just before the December, 2005 election in Iraq, Mamun Rashid, governor of Al Anbar Province, told me, “this election will change everything because women are going to vote.”
When I asked him why that would change things in Iraq, he replied, “Because women don’t vote to have their sons become suicide bombers.” Nearly half the ballots in the 2005 election were cast by women.
The American troops I’m heading off to cover for FOX News understand this. They realize that the reduced violence in Iraq today can be attributed to much more than simply a “surge” in U.S. forces.
If a broader “peace process” is to work in the Middle East, then the Annapolis Conference participants need to be convinced that granting women the right to vote is essential. The best antidote for radical Islamic terror is a woman’s purple finger.
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Living, Breathing Oppression
Judicial activism was oftened intellectually softened by proponents who repeated Al Gore's quest for a "living, breathing" constitution. For those who wished for the courts to pass laws that Congress should but wouldn't, the concept of a "living, breathing" consitution was an end run around the legislative process that often encumbered a minority power.
The founding fathers were clearly against this concept. Even the ammendment process was designed to primarily correct flaws in the original document that would become evident over time. The British law that governed them was not sourced in a single document like our constitution, but was ruled from several documents and 'customs'. The 'living, breathing' source of British law was an oppressive source of irritation that they saught to avoid in our constitution.
Thomas Jefferson warned, "our peculiar security is in possession of a written constitution and that Americans must not make it a blank paper by construction."
".. simply to approve the exercise of federal powers that were never delegated to the federal government on the grounds that some strained interpretation of the Constitution allowed them, or simply that the ammendment process was too cumbersome and time-consuming, was hardly different from having no written constitution at all."
"The evolution of the unwritten British constitution, the colonists had learned, always seemed to move in the direction of more power for the British government and fewer liberties for the colonies and the people. ... Americans, in short, gave their lives fighting against a 'living, breathing' constitution.."
from "33 Questions about American History You're Not Supposed to Ask" by Thomas E. Woods Jr.
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